-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
843
FXUS61 KBGM 120725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region today clearing
out the stubborn clouds. The high pressure gives way to a cold
frontal passage Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure with more summerlike weather builds
into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build into the region today. Stratus has
been very slow to lift and burn off across our region thanks in part
to a departing upper level low. Current thinking is the stratus will
burn off right around sunrise. A small window for some patchy fog is
still present just before sunrise but that potential is becoming
more uncertain. With more in the way of sunshine today temperatures
should get into the 70`s.

Tonight with clearer skies and light winds patchy fog can not be
ruled out once again overnight. However, the winds look to be
slightly higher as weak southerly flow becomes realized. This should
also keep overnight lows from falling much below the 50-55 degree
range as well. High pressure looks to remain in place Thursday as
well with more summerlike conditions thanks to southerly flow on the
backside of the high. Most locations should get into the 80`s for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
320 AM Update...

A cold front extending from an upper-level system will push into
Central NY Friday morning, and into NE PA by Friday afternoon.
This front will bring rain showers and storms, with a chance for
stronger storm development in NE PA and the Catskills. Depending
on the progression of this front, stronger to possibly severe
storms are currently most likely to develop in NE PA and the
Catskills, but could develop more north and west if the front
moves slower and allows for increasing instability parameters
where clear skies are ahead of the front. Although 0-6 km shear
greatly increases up to 40 to 50 knots, 0-1 km shear remains
weak; if any storms were to become severe, hail and wind would
be the main threats.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
320 AM Update...

After the front passes Friday, high pressure moves into the
area, leading to a warming trend and dry conditions. High
temperatures of high-60s to low-70s on Saturday will increase
into the high=80s to low-90s by Tuesday. Although we`re
approaching 6 to 7 days out in the long-term forecast, long-term
guidance hints at afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Monday
and Tuesday from a shortwave moving through the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR stratus across the region heading into the overnight.
This stratus should break up through the overnight presenting a
small window for patchy fog formation at KELM,KITH and KBGM from
08-12Z today. There is still some uncertainity with the stratus
clearing out in time, so included just TEMPO groups at this
time. Any lingering ceilings and fog should lift out by mid-
morning. VFR with light winds through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at
KELM possible Thursday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG