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653
FXUS61 KBOX 020704
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
304 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to move over New England keeping the
region dry. Low chance for showers Sunday night with a weak
shortwave passing over the region. High pressure brings warm
and dry weather through the middle of next week, then the
weather pattern becomes unsettled toward the end of the week as
a frontal system approaches from the west.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

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Surface high pressure centered near Bermuda continues the stretch of
wonderful weather across the region. Another warm and mainly sunny
day, very similar to Saturday, but do look for clouds to return from
west to east later this afternoon ahead of an approaching weak
shortwave. Given the similar setup, today`s high temperatures should
be similar to Saturday, highs return to the lower and middle 80s. Do
expect a seabreeze to develop once again mid morning, leading to
onshore flow along the coast, the immediate coast likely few degrees
cooler in the middle and upper 70s. But all around a great day.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

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Tonight: As mentioned above, a weak shortwave cuts across the area
with the focus on any spot showers in far southwest CT and western
MA. Think there is enough dry air near the surface that these will
be very light or virga, capped the POPs at 24 percent, leading to a
"Slight Chance". The increased cloud cover and the light westerly
wind keep temperatures in the low 60s, a few spots in northern MA
settle into the upper 50s.

Monday: High pressure still in control, a secondary high over the
Gulf of Maine shifts north into Quebec and 500mb heights increasing
as ridging redevelops over the northeast. There could be weak
shortwave energy moving down from the north, likely only adding some
clouds, but would not be shocked if there were an isolated brief
shower, with PWATS around 0.8". Did introduce a few area of "Slight
Chance" showers, 15-20 percent, across the CWA. Tough to say exactly
where these will pop-up, but at the end of the day, not anticipating
any adverse weather. Still fairly warm, highs return to the low and
middle 80s despite an easterly wind. That said, the immediate coast
of eastern MA will have highs in the middle 70s, perhaps the lower
70s for the outer Cape.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:

* Tranquil and dry weather Mon thru Wed with mild temps inland,
  cooler near the coast.

* Increasing threat of rain/t-storms late in the week and early
  weekend - timing still a bit unclear.

Details:

Overall tranquil weather conditions through at least Wed looks to be
on tap for Southern New England based on the 12z global ensembles.
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine looks to bring a couple days of
onshore flow near the coast for Mon and Tue, perhaps with scattered
low clouds near the immediate coast. Full sun inland with temps
being considerably warmer (e.g. lower to mid 80s inland, vs upper
60s/lower 70s coastal areas). 500 mb heights then start to rise Tue
into Wed with SWly flow developing at sfc, favoring more widespread
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Pattern change toward more unsettled weather then develops around
Thurs into late week/early weekend. 500 mb ridging weakens and
shifts eastward, to be replaced by pretty strong 500 mb height falls
associated with an anomalous closed upper low located over the Gt
Lakes region as we move into Fri which stays more or less in place
into Sat. A frontal system is expected to move across Southern New
England, and while the exact timing is still a bit unclear and
sensitive to how quickly the 500 mb ridge breaks down, felt NBM PoPs
into the solid Chance range Wed night through the first part of
Thurs were a bit too aggressive given the rather amplified pattern.
Reduced these favoring a drier Thurs, although PoPs then increase
more significantly into Thurs night into Fri following loose
consensus in the individual global models. Thus late in the week
looks to be our next chance for showers or t-storms, and while 925-
850 mb temps favor warmer temps than indicated, more cloud cover
around should keep highs in the 70s although with a bit of an uptick
in humidity level.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight... High confidence.

VFR and dry. WSW to SW winds less than 10 knots will give way to
afternoon seabreezes along the coast. For the evening, will see
increased cloud cover over western terminals but still in the VFR
range.

Monday... High confidence.

VFR and dry. Wind becomes E/NE less than 10 knots. Across the
interior winds could become light and variable.

KBOS TAF... High confidence.

VFR and dry. SE to S wind before 12z this morning, becoming ESE
around 14z with winds speeds less than 10 knots. This evening wind
goes WSW.

KBDL TAF... High confidence.

VFR with light/variable winds through 11z. Winds become light
southerly shortly after, speeds under 5 kt which then shift to SW
around 4-7 kt around 18z. A very low chance for an isolated light
shower, mainly after 04z tonight.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
chance TSRA.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday... High confidence.

Continued tranquil boating conditions today and into Monday with the
dominant weather feature being an area of high pressure.

Today... High confidence.

Mainly sunny, increasing clouds late afternoon. South wind generally
less than 10 knots, an occasional gust to 15 knots. Seas are 2 ft or
less.

Tonight... High confidence.

Increased cloud cover, a rouge spot shower possible generally for
waters south and west of Rhode Island Sound. West winds are between
8 and 12 knots. Gusts to 20 knots possible over the southern waters,
south of Block Island to Nantucket. Seas are 2 ft or less.

Monday... High confidence.

Partly to mostly sunny. Light east wind less than 10 knots. Seas are
2 ft or less for most waters, building to near 3 ft along the
southern most outer waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.
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&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley