Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 290219 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1019 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes tonight before a sharp cold front produces rain and snow showers and gusty winds late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A storm system over the weekend could bring another round of strong winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Mainly clear skies and dry weather will then continue tonight as high pressure slides overhead. Lows temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper 20s, with a few locations right along the lakeshores staying in the lower 30s. ...Snow squalls and rapidly falling temperatures late Wednesday... High pressure slides east of the area early Wednesday keeping the area dry into the early afternoon, but eventually giving way to a sharp arctic cold front. This front will charge across the area from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening, in the general 4 pm-7 pm time frame. This will certainly have an impact on the Wednesday evening commute across the entire area. Along and just ahead of the front there will be enough support and instability to develop a narrow band of moderate to heavy showers with even the potential for some thunder, as lapse rates steepen sufficiently to potentially overcome only minimally forecasted CAPE. Temperatures ahead of the front likely reaching into the lower to mid 50s, especially across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Immediately behind the front the rain will change rapidly to a brief period of moderate to heavy snow with a solid potential for snow squalls. Winds will become very gusty immediately ahead and immediately behind the front as strong winds aloft mix down within the convective elements. Not completely out of the question that some damaging wind gusts could occur. Temperatures behind the front will drop some 25 degrees within about a 2 hour period, bringing some concern for a possible flash freeze of any lingering moisture on roadways. 850 mb temperatures eventually falls to near -15C later Wednesday night as the front settles well south of the area. Northwest flow lake effect snow showers are possible southeast of Lake Ontario, but rapidly building high pressure along with subsidence and notably drier air will limit the lake effect snow potential. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the teens and 20s, but gradually lowering northwest winds will create winds chills as cold as the single digits.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... During the course of Thursday high pressure and much drier air will rapidly build east across our area. Lingering cold northwesterly flow and leftover low level moisture may still be enough to produce some spotty morning flurries and snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario...before further drying and subsidence bring about a return to dry weather areawide for the afternoon. Otherwise it will be a partly to mostly sunny and chilly late March day with highs ranging from the low-mid 30s east of Lake Ontario to the 35-40 range elsewhere. Thursday night the axis of the surface ridge will slide eastward into eastern New York and western New England...with good radiational cooling initially allowing for evening low temperatures ranging from the upper teens/lower 20s across the North Country to the mid/upper 20s elsewhere. During the second half of the night... developing southerly return flow on the backside of the ridge will then allow for rising temperatures...particularly across far western New York where readings should reach the mid-upper 30s by daybreak. Friday through Saturday night another southern stream mid-level trough will race northeastward from the central Rockies to the central Great Lakes by Saturday morning...before merging with the base of a corresponding northern stream trough and ejecting out across Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes through the rest of the period. At the surface...there is increasing confidence that a deepening cutter-type low will follow along a similar path through Friday night before passing by a bit to our northwest Saturday... then out across Atlantic Canada Saturday night. Such a track would be favorable for another round of potentially strong to high winds Saturday and Saturday evening...with the medium range guidance packages continuing to show some differences in the exact track/ strength of the low and consequently the degree of the potential wind threat we can expect. Out ahead of this system...strengthening warm air advection and deepening moisture will bring a return to much warmer temperatures and periodic rounds of fairly widespread showers (along with general pcpn amounts of one to two thirds of an inch) between Friday and Friday night...with the precip possibly beginning as a little light snow before changing over to all rain during the course of Friday morning. With south-southwesterly winds of 35-45 knots in place around 925mb through much of this time frame...there may also be some periods of stronger downslope winds with gusts to 35-40 knots possible along the Lake Erie shoreline. Otherwise we can expect highs Friday to recover to the mid-upper 40s east of Lake Ontario to the low-mid 50s elsewhere in spite of the showers...with evening lows Friday night then ranging from the lower 40s across the North Country to the upper 40s/lower 50s south of Lake Ontario...before giving way to rising temps overnight as warm advection strengthens again out ahead of the system`s approaching cold front. On Saturday the surface low will pass by a bit to our northwest while sweeping its trailing strong cold front across our area between the morning and early afternoon hours. The very mild airmass out ahead of the front will likely allow for high temperatures to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s prior to the fropa...and would likely allow for a line of at least some heavier showers and (though not currently explicitly mentioned in the forecast) possibly even some thunderstorms to mark the frontal passage...with these potentially supporting some strong gusty winds in and of themselves given the 50- 60 knot flow that looks to be present not that far off the deck. Following the frontal passage...strong cold advection should then help to better mix down lingering strong winds from aloft for a rough 3-6 hour period between the rest of Saturday and early Saturday evening...with some potential for the stronger winds to extend a bit further inland this time around given a more rapid shift in wind direction from southwesterly to westerly. At this point the medium range guidance continues to suggest the potential for anywhere from a higher-end advisory to lower-end warning-type wind event...with the previously noted gap between the GFS/GEM and ECMWF solutions narrowing some with this cycle. Otherwise...we can expect rapidly falling temperatures and diminishing shower coverage in the wake of the frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening...which could allow for the lingering pcpn to mix with or change to a little wet snow before coming to an end by late Saturday night. By later Saturday night temps will primarily range through the 20s...with winds also coming down markedly as surface-based ridging builds into our region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... In the extended portion of the forecast...Canadian surface high pressure still looks to build overhead and provide us with a quiet/dry and chillier than normal Sunday...with highs mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s. This ridge will then depart off to our east Sunday night through early next week...with redeveloping warm air advection on its backside then helping to send temps back up to above normal levels for Monday and Tuesday. This being said... precipitation potential remains more difficult to pin down for the early part of next week with the medium range guidance packages still showing significant differences on the evolution of the next low pressure system(s) to affect our for now have just continued to indicate some broadbrush slight chance to lower-end chance PoPs in the forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected at the terminals tonight as high pressure slides east of the Great lakes. VFR conditions continue through Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will plow through the region between 20-00z Wednesday. This will bring rain showers changing to snow showers with gusty winds behind the front. Snow showers may produce heavy bursts of snow reducing visibility. Outlook... Wednesday evening...Restrictions continue into early evening in gusty rain and snow showers. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...Restrictions likely in rain showers. Saturday...Restrictions likely in rain showers. Strong winds possible. Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest will build and slide east across the region tonight. This will promote generally light winds and minimal wave action. Southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday, before switching to northwest behind the front Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and the Niagara River. There could be a brief period of Gale Force winds and gusts behind the front Wednesday afternoon, especially across Lake Ontario. Winds lessen for a period before ramping back up Friday into the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to noon EDT Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ044-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...EAJ/HSK/TMA MARINE...EAJ/HSK/RSH/TMA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.