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858
FXUS62 KCAE 131750
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday. A weak
front moves in from the north Saturday, with a slight increase
in moisture. Mainly expect isolated afternoon convection to be
possible through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures are
expected throughout much of the forecast period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure remains in place to our north this afternoon. The
pressure gradient between this feature and an area of low
pressure off the coast has produced periodically gusty east to
northeast winds this afternoon. We are also watching the sea
breeze boundary which, as expected, has resulted in shower and
isolated thunderstorm development along the coast. The
probability of any convection reaching our forecast area today
remains very low (under 10%) but trends will be monitored. The
forecast area can expect scattered clouds for the remainder of
the day with high temperatures generally in the lower 90s. Skies
clear out tonight but given the overall dry conditions, any fog
should be limited to near bodies of water. The clear skies
should allow temperatures to be cooler than last night with
forecast lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Friday will still be mostly dry as high pressure will continue
across the area. Weak stationary surface front well south does
extend northward and off the SC/GA coast, with low pressure
developing along it through the day. This low remains well
offshore and will be tracking away from the region. Moisture
across the area will remain limited, and a continued subsidence
inversion should limit any kind of rain activity to areas much
closer to the coast. Temperatures do reach into the middle 90s,
and heat index values will be similar due to the dry air in
place. Friday night will see a weak cold front moving towards
the area from the north, but once again the airmass ahead of the
front will be too dry for any rainfall to develop across our
area. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.

For Saturday, the front moves in and through, but really wont
see much impact for temperatures. Exception may be across the
very northern Midlands and Pee Dee where highs in the lower 90s
will be possible. Meanwhile elsewhere, guidance still generally
giving mid to upper 90s, with heat index values around 100
degrees. Continue to strongly encourage those that will be
outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. The subsidence
inversion will be weakening on Saturday however with dry air
expected to remain in the mid levels with light northerly to
northwesterly winds lending a bit of downsloping any potential
for convection would be in the eastern Midlands, and very
isolated at best.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Much of the longer term period will see a strong upper ridge
across the region. At the surface, the center of an area of high
pressure off to our north will slowly be moving eastward off the
New England coast. This will eventually turn low level winds
more off the Atlantic, bringing an increase in moisture. Even
with the slightly better moisture, only expecting isolated
afternoon convection through the period due to the strength and
position of the upper ridge. Temperatures through the long term
will remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index readings
slightly higher each afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Breezy Winds Possible this Afternoon as VFR Conditions Persist.

High pressure remains in place to our north this afternoon. The
pressure gradient between this feature and an area of low
pressure off the coast has produced periodically gusty east to
northeast winds at the terminals this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions continue with mostly scattered cumulus and 4000 to
6000 foot bases being observed. These clouds will dissipate
after sunset with winds becoming light and variable tonight. No
significant flight hazards are currently anticipated barring a
low risk of patchy fog at OGB and AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
expected through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Sunday and Monday but current confidence on
restrictions is low.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$