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127
FXUS62 KCAE 121806
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
206 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to build over the area from the north,
allowing dry conditions to persist through Friday. Moisture
will begin increasing slightly by Sunday, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast into next week. Hot
temperatures are expected throughout much of the forecast
period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies are sunny to partly sunny across the region this
afternoon with scattered cumulus across much of the forecast
area. Moisture remains limited with PWATs around an inch. Warm
and dry conditions continue for the rest of the day with
forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A shortwave trough
will approach the region this evening but given how dry the
atmosphere is, only increasing cloudiness is expected with a
near zero chance of rain. The mid to high level cloudiness
should be thicker than last night resulting in slightly warmer
overnight temperatures with lows in the mid-60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper pattern will consist of an upper trough moving north of
the region, then deepening as it moves towards the Atlantic
coastline. Further west, an area of high pressure situated
across the southern plains and northern Mexico will begin to
push eastward. In general, our upper pattern will see our winds
turning from westerly early in the period, to more
northwesterly. At the surface, a stalled surface front remains
well south of the region, while another cold front should begin
approaching from the north late Friday night. Dry conditions
will continue each day though, with maybe some sea-breeze
showers possible just east of the cwa each day. Temperatures
Thursday will reach to around 90, then expected to rise into the
middle 90s for Friday as the upper ridge off to the west begins
building eastward.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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For Saturday a diffuse cold front should be moving towards the
cwa through the day. Ahead of this front, the upper ridge that
has been off to our west will be strengthening into the cwa. The
strength of this ridge should be enough to keep conditions ahead
of the weak front dry but hot. The front should stall out
somewhere across the southern cwa, or just south of that into
Sunday. Rainfall chances into next week will depend on the
strength of the developing capping inversion each afternoon.
Best day for activity appears to be Sunday before the mid-level
cap begins to strengthen into next week. Higher concerns will
exist for afternoon high temperatures, where readings in the mid
to upper 90s, and possible even at 100. Airmass may remain dry
enough to keep afternoon heat index values below any advisory
criteria. Even so, continue to urge caution for those outdoors
to take frequent breaks and hydrate well.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR Conditions Persist....

VFR conditions continue at the terminals this afternoon. Cumulus
clouds are passing through the region producing SCT to BKN
clouds with ceilings of 4000 to 6000 feet. In addition, a few
cirrus clouds are moving in from the southwest. Expect the
cumulus to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this
evening with increasing mid to high level cloudiness towards
daybreak. The thicker clouds tonight should prevent the
development of low stratus and fog towards daybreak. With high
pressure in control, light and variable winds are expected to
continue through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid-week before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase Friday and into the weekend.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$