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756
FXUS62 KCAE 151614
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1214 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will move through the area tonight, then stall out
off to the south of the forecast area on Sunday. Mainly expect
isolated afternoon and evening convection through the weekend.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal
temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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This afternoon: A weak cold front will continue to slowly push
into the Midlands and CSRA through this evening. Ahead of this
front, a good amount of sunshine is expected, along with some of
the hottest temperatures we have seen this year. Afternoon highs
still on track to reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index
values in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. As we continue to
message for anyone outdoors, please be sure to take plenty of
breaks and hydrate.

Convective models are still indicating some potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms as moisture increases along
the front later this afternoon. Satellite does show some cumulus
developing along the front, but very little vertical development
at this time. If any activity can develop, the best chance for
any convection still appears to be over the southeastern
Midlands and southern CSRA into this evening. Generally have
kept mention of isolated activity through sunset.

Tonight: Front will push south of the area tonight. Any shower
or storm activity should be weakening by sunset and do expect
most areas to become dry for the overnight hours. Overnight
lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A stalled frontal boundary should be along a line from the lower
CSRA through the Southeastern Midlands on Sunday. This boundary
combined with an onshore flow should be the focus for diurnal
convection on Sunday. The chances of precipitation will be in
the 20 to 30 percent range primarily near the boundary. It will
remain slightly warmer than normal with highs in the lower to
mid 90s. Heat indices should approach 100F in some areas.

High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas Monday and expands
northward into the Mid Atlantic States and New England on Tuesday.
The H5 high pressure system position and the subsidence underneath
will shunt the deepest moisture to the west of the region and result
in mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain slightly above
normal for mid June.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Much above normal H5 heights are very likely to be centered over
New England and the Mid Atlantic States from the middle of next
week into next weekend. The orientation of these exceptionally
high H5 heights shifts from northeast to southwest to east to
west as the week progresses. This could allow an inverted upper
trough to move onshore around Thursday and enhance the sea
breeze front. A chance of convection should be possible,
especially near the sea breeze front.

The H5 high center should shift southward into the Carolinas by
next weekend which would decrease the chance of diurnal
convection and lead to a greater potential of excessive heat.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR likely through the TAF period.

A surface cold front is slowly tracking southward through the
region. This will be tracking through cae/cub/ogb by 18z, then
will continue southward towards ags/dnl by 20z. Winds variable
south of the front, then tuning more north to northeasterly as
the front passes by. Through the afternoon, scattered vfr
cumulus field will develop as the front pushes southward. A
Convective models do show isolated showers and/or thunderstorm
development this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of
cae/cub, but closer to ogb/ags/dnl. Confidence remains low in
regards to any activity impacting terminals this afternoon, so
am keeping mention of it out of the TAFs for now. A return to
mostly clear skies after sunset, continuing for much of the
night. There may be limited low-level moisture near Sunday
morning, but there should be enough mixing near the surface to
help prevent any stratus.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$