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760
FXUS62 KCAE 061649
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1249 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front is expected to move across the Southeast from late
tonight into early Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms
develop along and ahead of it this afternoon and this evening.
Drier air follows the front for Friday into the weekend.
Another cold front possible early next week, with rain potential
increasing ahead of it late in the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front associated currently moving through the
Appalachians is forecast to move toward and through the area
tonight into early Friday morning. In addition, and upper
shortwave over the Deep South is forecast to move eastward
toward the Southeast. As a result, increased moisture flux has
begun as can be seen by an increasing cumulus field. As these
features approach the area this afternoon and overnight, expect
scattered showers and storms to develop across the region. A few
of the storms could become strong to marginally severe this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings continue to show an
inverted V profile, indicating a damaging wind threat, much like
we`ve seen the past couple of days. Mid-level lapse rates are
not too steep, thus large hail threat is minimal, but small
hail is possible in the stronger storms.

As the front passes overnight, the chances for showers and
storms diminish from the northwest to southeast, with any
lingering showers likely exiting the region by daybreak.
Overnight lows are still expected to be on the warmer side, with
temperatures bottoming around 70.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will see the cold front moving east of the cwa, allowing
drier air to move back into the region. After the past few days
of rainfall, a return to drier weather will occur through this
period of the forecast as high pressure settles into the area.
With the expected sunshine, highs during the afternoon are still
expected to reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday a cold front will begin moving towards the region from
the north. Although the day will start off dry, increasing
moisture may allow at least some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures become a little bit warmer ahead of the front,
with highs in lower to mid 90s. The front may end up stalling
somewhere across the area early next week. This will end up
keeping at least some scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. There is some
uncertainty with afternoon temperatures too, due to the
potential mixture of clouds and sun, rainfall, and eventual
position of the front. For now most guidance keeps readings
close to or just above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions expected except in showers and storms.

Cumulus field is expected to increase in coverage this
afternoon as moisture increases. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, with
the highest chances for thunderstorms at the terminals between
19z-23z for AGS/DNL, 20z-00z for CAE/CUB, and 21z-01z for OGB.
Winds outside any thunderstorms are expected to be from the
southwest, gusting to around 20 kts, through around 00z. After
the front passes, winds shift to more westerly, then
northwesterly late in the period. Low level winds are expected
to remain elevated, so fog is not anticipated tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier weather Friday through the
weekend. Moisture increases early next week which may lead to
early morning fog or stratus.
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.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$