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975
FXUS61 KCAR 201311
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge across the region through early week,
then build south of the area through the middle of the week. A
strong cold front will cross the area Thursday, followed by high
pressure Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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911AM Update...Fog has dissipated across the region, though low
stratus clouds are still hanging around the Central Highlands
and Downeast. No major changes to the forecast for this update.

previous discussion
The upper level ridge remains the dominant feature through tonight.
At the surface, high pressure extending from the Maritimes and along
the New England coast slowly shifts east through tonight.  After any
patchy low clouds and fog dissipate this morning expect a partly to
mainly sunny day. A weak disturbance tracking across the far north
later this afternoon into early this evening could generate an
isolated shower or thunderstorm from the north Maine Woods through
the St. John Valley. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to mostly
skies tonight with patchy fog and low clouds once again expected
to develop late. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid
to upper 70s north with lower 70s for Bangor and interior
Downeast, and even cooler along the immediate coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upr ridge will be extending from high center over Mexico up into
the mid-Atlantic at the start of the period, with zonal flow
acrs CWA. Vort max currently over Kansas will be ejecting
northeastward toward the area and looks to approach wrn areas on
Tuesday afternoon. Latest GFS is still much quicker bringing
showers in across the north whereas remainder of short term
guidance, along with most hires models, are about 3 hours slower
and not seeing chc for shower potential until around 21z. For
the time being based on latest model runs have delayed chc for
showers until later in the afternoon. However this may still be
too quick to move in and will all depend on timing of vort. PW
values increase above 1.25" during the afternoon and evening
hours which is well above normal for this time of the year.
Given the environment cannot rule out thunderstorms on Tuesday
afternoon as inland locations look to hit their convective
temps. 0-6km shear of around 30-40kts with CAPES of between
500-1000 J/kg in the afternoon looks to bring potential of
damaging winds. Unfortunately, there look to be two different
camps of solutions which leads to very minimal confidence in
timing of storms.

NAM/CMC and EC bring showers and isold storms thru during the
overnight hours on Tuesday night. Have retained storms thru 03z
Wednesday just to account for slower solutions but confidence
remains very low at this point.

Upr ridge looks to build in on Wednesday with warm front lifting
through in the afternoon. Under warm advection cannot rule out
showers outside of marine layer, however soundings indicate a
capping inversion around H8 during the afternoon hours. Temps
over inland areas expected to rise into the 80s with immediate
shoreline and outer islands in the mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area will be in the warm sector on Thursday before cold front
moves through in the afternoon. This will likely be enuf to
result in a line of storms with CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 0-6km
shear on the order of 40kts. PW values increase to 1.50 inches
immediately ahead of the front so cannot rule out locally heavy
rainfall with storms on Thursday.

Temperatures on Friday will be 10 degrees cooler than Thursday
with upr lvl trof lingering and bringing showers to northern
zones. Saturday likely to be the coolest day with highs only
getting into the lower 60s over the north in northwest flow.
Upper level ridge looks to begin building in on Sunday with the
next chance for showers possibly moving in on Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR possible across the Aroostook terminals through
early morning in low cigs, otherwise VFR through tonight.

KBGR/KBHB..IFR/MVFR expected through early morning due to
ceilings, then VFR returns through early this evening. Low
clouds/patchy fog will then affect the terminals late tonight.

S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt at all terminals through tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though may see brief MVFR in slight chance
for storms over over Aroostook terminals. WSW 5-10kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...VFR. MVFR/IFR fog at BHB
Wednesday morning. SW 5-10kts Tuesday evening, W 5-10kts
Wednesday, then S 5kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with IFR possibly in strong thunderstorms
across north. SW 5-15kts.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR with brief MVFR cigs over north and
possible showers. SW 5-10kts becoming W 10-15kts with gusts to
20kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through tonight.
Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog early this
morning and again late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds below SCA levels through Thursday. SW winds
will be marginal over the outer waters Thursday into Thursday
evening. Seas will build toward 5ft on Thursday in southerly
swell.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/Buster
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/Buster