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076
FXUS62 KCHS 192346
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
746 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist
through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances
will impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Mesoanalysis and radar data suggest the cold front is approaching
the I-16 corridor with a narrow band of showers associated with
it. The front will continue to meander south this evening and
should be south of the Altamaha River by an hour or so after
midnight. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect current radar
trends with 20-30% pops clustered near and south of the front.
Most of the area has been solidly worked over, but an isolated
tstm or two could still occur until the vorticity maximum noted
just offshore pulls farther away. Drier air will slowly advect
in from the north through the night. Lows will range from the
lower 60s inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday,
bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be
weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the
north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s
near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The
surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper
ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into
Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s
Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through
Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of
shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon
through early next week, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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20/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstm impacts have ended. A few
showers will meander around KSAV through about 01z until the
front clears that terminal. MVFR cigs will prevail at all
terminals this evening with cigs slowly mixing out to VFR after
midnight. VFR will then dominate through 00z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters
this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night
with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South
Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be
convectively driven and not necessarily representative of
prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit
overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient
tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small
Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except
3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone.

Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE
gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A
few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and
seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The
gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east
and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern
will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along
the coast.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full
Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early
this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides
Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$