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059
FXUS61 KCTP 100947
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
547 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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* Today will be coldest day of the week with high temperatures
  5F to 15F below average for mid-June.
* Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, primarily north
  of I-80, and Tuesday afternoon in southeast PA, but most
  locations will stay dry.
* Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week
  as high pressure brings a stretch of rain- free weather with
  relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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It is a chilly start to the week as temperatures dropped into
the 40s in the northern tier and the mid to upper 50s in the
southeast overnight. The approach of a potent shortwave aloft
today will support more clouds than sun over the higher terrain
along with isolated showers across the northern mountains. By
this afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy skies will extend all
the way into southeast PA thanks to a fair weather stratocumulus
deck.

Temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach 60 degrees
across the northern tier and remain in the 60s to mid 70s
elsewhere. These high temperatures will be 5F to 15F degrees
below average for mid- June. Add a northwest wind to the
relatively cool temperatures for this time of year and the
difference between being in the sun and in the shade will feel
very significant today.

Clouds will taper off across much of the area tonight and another
cool night is in store. Lows will range from the mid 40s across
the Allegheny Plateau to the mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. A stray shower is possible near the Mason-Dixon line
late tonight as a weak surface trough traverses the region, but
no significant accumulation is expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough that has kept temperatures below normal will be
slow to exit the region on Tuesday. North or northwest winds
will continue to promote cold air advection, but the lack of as
much cold air aloft should result in fewer clouds and therefore
allow temperatures to trend 3 to 6 degrees warmer across higher
elevations Tuesday afternoon. Farther southeast, expect a
similar day as Monday with highs in the mid 70s. A stray shower
or storm is also possible Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure will begin to build in Tuesday night, which will
support clearing skies and calm winds. Patchy valley fog is
possible into Wednesday morning in the deepest valleys of
northwest PA. Overnight lows will turn the corner and begin
moderating Tuesday night ranging from the upper 40s in the
northwest to near 60 in the southeast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Upper flow should become more zonal for the second half of the
week. At the surface, a strong high pressure system will park
over Pennsylvania Wednesday into Friday and promote clear skies,
calm winds, and increasingly-mild temperatures. Highs will be
in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday, which is just about
average for this time of year. It looks like Thursday and
Friday will be downright summer- like, with highs topping 80
degrees areawide and even approaching or topping the 90-degree
mark in the valleys of south-central Pennsylvania.

The next chance of showers and storms will be Friday, as a cold
front drops southeastward from the Great Lakes. High pressure
should build back in for next weekend, with a brief cool down
expected on Saturday before temperatures begin another upward
trend on Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air and
considerable cloudiness this morning. There is a high chance
(~90%) that ceilings over the northwestern highlands (BFD) will
remain at least MVFR through daybreak this morning, with a
~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings. Restrictions will likely last
through much of the day. Farther to the south and east, VFR
ceilings are expected to prevail. Could see some patchy valley
fog where skies remain mostly clear and winds subside, but not
currently anticipating this at any TAF site.

Northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high
pressure builds in across the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions possible if afternoon/evening CB/TSRA
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Evanego
AVIATION...Guseman/Gartner