-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
983
FXUS64 KEPZ 252343
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
543 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue across the Borderland into
next week. Record high temperatures are possible Friday with most
areas in the mid to upper 90s. A slight cool down then for the
weekend and another early next week, but temperatures still remain
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Highly amplified upper ridge has built in over the Rockies over
the last 24 hours. While the amplitude and shape of the ridge
change some over the next week, the center of it will remain in
the NM/AZ area. What does this mean for our weather? Warm and dry
conditions through the forecast period with a record high possible
Friday. The average high in El Paso over the next week goes from
86 to 83, highs are expected to remain above these temps, even
behind a weak back door early next week. EC/GFS and Ensemble means
all support H85 temps on Fri around 30C east to 32C west which
will result in highs well into the 90s for the lowlands. El Paso`s
record high is 98, that is in jeopardy of being broken or at least
tied. For now will keep 98 going for the forecast at ELP with
generally mid 90s for the remainder of the lower elevations and
70s/80s in the mountains.

A weak push of cooler air moves in for Saturday, but this only
drops highs about 5 degrees, so highs will mainly be in the lower
90s through Monday. Monday night is when models continue to pick
up on a back door front moving in with the operational GFS more
aggressive than the EC or most ensembles. MEX temps seem too cool,
but the NBM ones seem reasonable which results in another cool
down to the mid to upper 80s for Tuesday. Some differences in how
quick the next Pacific trough moves in will impact how warm temps
get late in the period, but no matter what, above normal temps
will continue. One nice thing is very dry air will remain in place
and allow overnight lows to fall off into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT100 SCT250 through
03Z, then SKC. Surface winds east/southeast 8-12G18 knots til 03Z,
then east/northeast AOB 7 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hot and dry weather will be the norm for quite some time. Above
normal highs will continue for the next week with RH`s starting in
the mid teens to lower 20s for the lowlands, but by Friday, fall
into the lower to mid teens with some 20s in the mountains. Winds
will generally be east to southeast through the period at 5-15
mph, occasionally stronger west of the Divide. There will be some
mid level moisture moving in for Fri-Sun, but at this time it
looks like warm air aloft will prevent any thunderstorm
development in the mountains, but just something to watch since
dry lightning would likely result if build-ups occur. Vent rates
will be poor to fair Thu and improving to good for Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
El Paso                  67  93  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  92  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  90  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  70  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  92  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              61  88  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   59  93  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                59  93  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  92  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  92  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  93  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  85  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  93  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  91  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  91  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  92  52  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    59  93  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  93  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  90  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 45  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  47  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  91  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  92  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  88  43  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  90  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    50  93  48  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               46  90  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  88  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   60  94  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               60  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner