Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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460 FXUS63 KFGF 102053 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight. The main threat will be lightning. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially in west central Minnesota and the southern Red River Valley.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...Synopsis... Several troughs and shortwaves are set to traverse the Northern Plains in the coming days, with the first expected to bring rain and isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening and tonight. There will be minimal instability with this first system, with the expectation of mainly embedded thunderstorms. For Tuesday, lingering showers and storms move east of the area by around midday, with shortwave ridging building in from west to east. ...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday... Our next trough moves into the area Wednesday following a brief amplification of an H5 ridge late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There are a number of possible scenarios that could unfold Wednesday with impacts scaling with timing. Most guidance is now bringing the best forcing through the area very early in the afternoon, which would still allow for strong storms, but with lower coverage. CAPE still has at least a 70 percent chance to exceed 2000 J/Kg, primarily in west-central Minnesota and the southern Red River Valley. Alternatively, a slower and deeper trough allows the H5 ridge to build into the area and bring additional moisture further north Wednesday afternoon, thus expanding the area of potentially severe thunderstorms well into northwest Minnesota and the central Red River Valley. Shear will be favorable in both scenarios, with low level (0-3 Km) shear upwards of 20-30 knots, and deep layer (0-6 Km) shear in the range of 50-60 knots. Model soundings have been consistently showing dry air in the mid levels, both increasing our lapse rates, and providing a favorable environment for RIJ development. Overall, this would mainly be a wind threat, associated with hybrid clusters and possibly line segments; however, supercells could briefly develop early in the process. Another shortwave and H5 upper low pushes through on Thursday, with little instability to work with in the wake of Wednesday`s system. Look for mainly embedded storms, with the possibility of an isolated stronger storm during the early to mid afternoon.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with increasing cloud cover and rain chances this evening and overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected at all sites during the overnight hours following shower activity as a weak shortwave traverses the region. Winds this afternoon and evening remain out of the south to southwest at 15 to 20 knots. Winds will shift following the passage of the shortwave, becoming west to northwest Tuesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch