Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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348 FXUS63 KFGF 101755 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday night. The main threat will be lightning. - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly northwest and west central Minnesota and extreme southeast North Dakota. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The forecast remains on track this afternoon, with shower activity remaining just west of the Devils Lake area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage heading through the afternoon and evening ahead of a shortwave trough. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...Synopsis... Sfc high pressure was located over eastern ND. Clear sky and light winds over the area allowing for temperatures to drop into the 40s in most areas, with a few 30s in the normally colder spots in northwest and north central MN. Patchy fog seen at Fosston AWOS at at the airport and webcam in Fosston shows some patchy low lying fog around as well. Isolated coverage and will burn off quickly. Incoming system seems a good 3 hours slower than it was looking 24-48 hours ago. Will use primarily NBM 4.2 pops but as often the case the leading edge of low chances may be too fast. But overall look for chances for showers and a few t-storms to reach DVL basin after 4 pm and then into the RRV mainly 10 pm to 1 am and then spreading east thru the pre-dawn hours into MN. The main 500 mb wave is moving northeast from south central Montana into southern Saskatchewan thru 18z and then east-northeast from there into the Lake Winnipeg region in Manitoba by 12z Tues. Trailing cold front will move east and be the focus for showers and a few t-storms but instability tonight with the front is quite minimal with little to no CAPE by 06z. Thus mention of any t-storms are more targeted for E ND vs MN. Dew pts remain in the upper 40s ahead of this system and with main forcing from upper low well northwest of us, QPF has trended down the past 24 hours with WPC QPF in the 0.05 to 0.30 inch now. Frontal system moves east Tuesday morning but 500 mb wave remains to our north near Lake Winnipeg and some moisture and weak instability around the south side of the upper low will bring a chance for a few showers or isold t-storm Tuesday daytime in NW MN. ...Threat for severe storms Wed aftn/eve for parts of the area... Wednesday will see upper level ridging into the area and advection of low level warm and moist air northward. 00z GFS values for dew pts in the low 70s into RRV and NW MN are likely too high and do not match the consensus of other models such as the ECMWF, NAM, and even GFS ensembles. They would indicate mid 60s dew pts into the RRV 18z Wed. High temps do look considerably warmer than was shown 24 hours ago, with highs low to mid 80s. Going with mid 60 dew pts and temps in the mid 80s give upwards of 2000-2500 j/kg for Wed mid aftn, esp SE ND/WC MN with 1000 j/kg up to the Intl border. Mid level jet in place and sfc-6km bulk shear is 50 kts more than enough for supercell formation. But forcing, that is rather weak it appears. There is a short wave trough behind the warm/unstable airmass moving in along the border, and a weak low in south central Manitoba and a sfc boundary moving into E ND midday Wed. This boundary looks to get pushed east fairly quick and extend nr a Roseau-Fargo line 21z Wed period. This is when the better chance for thunderstorms will occur, and with enough shear organized supercell discrete cells evolving into clusters and eventually a line, but that part may not be til it moves to our east and southeast. Thus with enough uncertainty yet SPC has marginal risk roughly Roseau-Fargo and east. Best instability does seem to peg areas from DLH to FSD at 00z-03z and this area is where SPC starts to indicate better organized severe activity with activity spreading east overnight. The weekend will see an upper trough intensify to our west with more ridging over the eastern Plains and Midwest. This should set the stage for increased t-storm chances Saturday and Sunday. Will need to monitor this period for any risk of severe storm potential. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with increasing cloud cover and rain chances this evening and overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected at all sites during the overnight hours following shower activity as a weak shortwave traverses the region. Winds this afternoon and evening remain out of the south to southwest at 15 to 20 knots. Winds will shift following the passage of the shortwave, becoming west to northwest Tuesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch