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293
FXUS64 KFWD 180441
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

A low pressure system of tropical origin will make westward
progress from the Gulf of Mexico into southern portions of Texas
over the next 36 hours, steered by weak mid-level easterlies.
While the greatest effects of this system will remain well south
of the CWA, it will still offer some rain chances during the
midweek period, along with slightly cooler temperatures due to
attendant widespread cloud cover. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across our southeastern zones this
afternoon on the far outer periphery of this feature, and should
be quite similar in coverage to Monday afternoon`s convective
activity. Following an intrusion of morning stratus, partial
clearing during the afternoon will allow highs to climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Greater moisture content and a shield of light/moderate rainfall
will spread into the area by Wednesday morning, and
broken/overcast skies will hold highs in the low/mid 80s for most
locations. Rain amounts will be highest across our Central Texas
zones where isolated totals of 1-2" are possible. The greatest
rain totals and highest flooding threat will remain south of the
forecast area. Most of North Texas will see rainfall totals around
a quarter inch or less, with some of our northwestern zones
possibly remaining dry altogether. The greatest rain chances will
occur from Wednesday morning into the afternoon before this
activity shifts progressively farther to the west heading into
Wednesday night.

-Stalley
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will be making its way inland along the
Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday night with its associated plume of
tropical moisture surging northward into North and Central Texas.
Notable warm/moist advection will result in increasing showers and
isolated storms beginning Tuesday night and continuing through
Thursday as the system slowly moves west/northwest over the
course of a couple of days.

Not much has changed regarding the expected precipitation totals
for our region, with the bulk of the precipitation and
significant rainfall totals still expected to remain to our south.
Average rainfall totals through Thursday will range from 1-3"
across Central Texas and near 1/2" or less across North Texas.
It`s worth noting, however, that some areas will receive no
measurable rainfall and others will receive more than the average
amounts mentioned above. The latter is especially true for
Central Texas where slow-moving and/or training showers and
thunderstorms may produce isolated rainfall totals between 3-5".
The most likely area for these higher rainfall totals will be
south of a line from Cisco to Palestine. While there is medium
confidence these higher-end rainfall totals will occur
somewhere across Central Texas, confidence in a precise
location(s) and frequency is quite low at this time. Hopefully,
this will come more into focus over the next couple of days.
Regardless, these higher end totals will certainly cause flood
impacts. While flooding will be less likely across North Texas,
PWATs are expected to reach 2-2.5" across various portions of the
forecast area on Wednesday. Therefore, any showers and storms that
develop in North and Central Texas collectively will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is currently
forecasting PWATs near 2.40" for portions of North Texas, which
would exceed our daily maximum PWAT (for June 19th) of 2.22". With
all of this in mind, ensure you keep a close eye on the forecast
for the latest information throughout the week.

The tropical disturbance will move further west on Thursday,
eventually bringing an end to our rain chances from east to west.
Rain-free weather is expected through the weekend, but hot
temperatures are expected with heat index values potentially
returning to the triple digits. Low rain chances look to return
early next week as we enter the final week of June.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/06z TAFs/

MVFR stratus is expected to fill in fairly quickly during the next
few hours, resulting in several hours of low cigs at all TAF sites
through the morning. Eventual lifting to VFR is expected this
afternoon, but cigs near 4 kft are likely to continue through
much of the daytime. Breezy southeast winds of 15-20 kts and
higher gusts will also prevail today, before wind speeds lessen to
around 10 kts later this evening. Convective activity is largely
expected to remain southeast of the TAF sites today, and none
will be advertised in the TAFs at this time.

-Stalley
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  91  74  87  74 /   0   5   5  30  20
Waco                74  90  74  84  73 /   0  10  10  60  40
Paris               74  89  72  84  72 /  10  10   5  20  10
Denton              75  92  72  87  71 /   0   5   5  30  20
McKinney            77  91  72  86  73 /   5   5   5  20  20
Dallas              76  92  74  87  74 /   0   5   5  30  20
Terrell             72  90  72  84  73 /   5  10   5  30  20
Corsicana           72  92  74  84  75 /   5  20  10  50  30
Temple              75  90  72  82  72 /   0  10  10  60  40
Mineral Wells       75  90  72  87  72 /   0   0   5  30  30
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$