-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
964
FXUS63 KICT 191921
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Thunderstorms will return to the region for late Saturday
afternoon/evening and a few could become strong or severe

- Heat will increase over Kansas for Sunday through middle of next
week with a return of dangerously high afternoon heat indices possible
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Will see some lingering rain showers and a few embedded storms into
the early evening hours over central Kansas. Otherwise dry weather
looks to prevail for the central plains on Thursday and Friday, as
upper level high pressure center retrogrades westward from the
eastern states towards the Mid-Mississippi valley region. South
winds will increase for Friday-Saturday across the region. Meanwhile
GFS/ECMWF models show a upper level wave moving slowly eastward
across the northern plains for Friday night into Saturday. This will
push a frontal boundary southward into Kansas during the late
afternoon hours on Saturday. The combination of low level
convergence along the frontal boundary, decent instability, and
modest increase for mid-upper level winds could generate a few
strong/severe storms over central Kansas late Saturday
afternoon/evening.

The heat will return and build over Kansas for Sunday-Wednesday
as GEFS/EPS model ensembles show upper level high pressure
building over southwestern states with a eastward expansion of
the heat dome. Expecting a mostly dry weather pattern this
period, however any warm air advection across 700mb mid-level
baroclinic zone could spark off some early morning storms.
Afternoon heat indices could surpass advisory levels of 105
degrees or higher for many locations next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cloudy skies with MVFR and some brief IFR CIGs can be expected
this afternoon along with some occasional light rain or showers.
There is a slight chance for a brief thunderstorm with this
activity but if it occurs, it will not last long. By 00Z
tonight, the rain will come to an end across the region but MVFR
CIGs are still expected through the overnight period. Do not
think IFR CIGs will occur but it is not out of the realm of
possibility. Otherwise, no significant aviation weather issues
are expected for this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM