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200
FXUS63 KICT 160540
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of showers/storms moving into portions of central and
  south central KS

- Additional showers/storms possible this evening into tonight

- Hot temperatures continue into next week

- Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday through
  Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

As of 2PM Saturday afternoon, a midlevel shortwave trough was
advancing across western KS. In response to this shortwave, a
cluster of showers and storms has developed across
central/south central KS. At this hour, the cluster extends from
just southwest of Great Bend, southward through Greensburg.
Given the forcing for ascent aloft and minimal inhibition, this
cluster should continue east-northeastward towards the
Interstate 135 corridor. The overall severe weather potential
seems relatively low, although DCAPE values upwards of 1300 J/kg
will support localized gusty winds up to 50 mph. Otherwise,
additional showers and storms are possible this evening into the
overnight with the shortwave trough remaining in the
neighborhood and increasing low-level WAA. Meager deep layer
shear should continue to limit the potential for severe storms.

Transitioning into Sunday and next week, the midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the
MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Main aviation concern will be a few storms over the next couple
of hours.

Scattered storms remain over northeast KS in an area of
persistent 850-700 theta-e advection. There is a chance a storm
or two may affect KSLN in the next couple of hours, but the
majority of the area is expected to remain dry. Even though
there will be plenty of instability and mostly uncapped, not
expecting afternoon storm development due to lack of surface
focus or upper level support. South winds will remain gusty
today with gusts 30-35 mph common at all sites.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL