Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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482 FXUS63 KILX 222049 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 349 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- A decaying line of thunderstorms will push into the area tonight. Hazardous weather will not be widespread, but a few locations will be susceptible to torrential rainfall, lightning, and pockets of gusty thunderstorm winds. - Afternoon temperatures will average about 5 degrees warmer than climatology over the next week, with the hottest day of the period coming Tuesday when heat index values could exceed triple digits. - Additional rainfall chances (greater than 50% probability) exist by the middle of next week with an attendant severe weather risk looming.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A quick check on features this afternoon reveals a compact mid- level shortwave trough pushing across the Upper-Mississippi Valley, with an attendant cold front extending from Green Bay to Omaha to Dodge City. A narrow corridor of low-to-mid 70s sfc dewpoints have pooled ahead of the this front, and convective initiation is already occuring across portions of NE Iowa. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient surface heating out ahead of these features should help erode any remaining cap, while a mid- level speed max (40-50 kts @ 500 mb) nosing in from the west helps augment deep layer shear. The net effect will be clusters of organized thunderstorms blossoming and pushing southeastward along the cold front. CAMs remain in excellent agreement that such activity will hold together as it sinks into central and southeast Illinois late this evening. An attendant severe weather risk remains in tact tonight, mainly in areas north of a Beardstown-to-Bloomington line where the axis of a 30-40 kt LLJ will be positioned. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, associated with a mature cold pool, is the main concern by the time the line reaches our forecast area. The expectation, though, is for convective activity to steadily fade overnight as the upper forcing (shortwave) becomes displaced too far northeast, the low- level jet axis gradually narrows and pinches off while convergence along the front weakens. In other words, thunderstorms will become less organized with southeast extent, and areas south of I-72 may not see much thunder at all. Hydro has the potential to steal the show tonight, with a few CAM members (notably the ARW, NAM Nest, and NSSL WRF) offering localized amounts up to 3" anywhere north of that Beardstown-to-Bloomington line. While this won`t be the rule by any means, it`s certainly a plausible outcome given a healthy LLJ and PWATs along the front that exceed the 99th percentile of mid-June climatology. A marginal cool down is anticipated Sunday in the wake of frontal passage, with afternoon highs mostly in the mid-to-upper 80s. This will be short-lived, though. By Monday, mid-level heights will steadily increase beneath a plume of hot air surging northward out of the western Gulf. Temperatures on Monday will eclipse 90 degrees in many areas, and if the deterministic NBM gets close to verifying, Tuesday will max out in the mid-to-upper 90s ahead of the next frontal zone with heat index values potentially exceeding 100 degrees. Tuesday is not necessarily a slam dunk Heat Advisory day, though, with multiple failure modes in play. Chief among them is a nocturnal MCS. While this signal is mostly muted in ensemble and multi- model guidance, the global deterministic do show some semblance of this possibility with a few shortwaves lurking upstream across the Corn Belt. Otherwise, our attention is focused on the frontal passage itself Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the very moist and unstable air mass ahead of the front, its passage may be accompanied by an attendant severe weather and hydro risk. Another brief cool down is then anticipated Thursday into Friday as modified Canadian high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the upper 80s during this period. Nevertheless, another signal for hot and increasingly humid weather returns late next week and into the weekend -- perhaps marking a return to mid 90s heat and an additional round of thunderstorm activity. MJA
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&& .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Low-level winds will increase ahead of the cold front, occasionally gusting to 25 kts this afternoon. Mid-level clouds will also increase in coverage as the front approaches from the northwest. Confidence remains high enough to mention TSRA at KPIA/KBMI by 03z, with less confidence at KSPI/KDEC/KCMI prompting the PROB30 by 06z. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decay overnight with southeast extent, but MVFR/stratus will develop behind the cold front and overspread KPIA/KBMI early Sunday morning. VFR conditions then return to all terminals by Sunday afternoon as drier air mixes in from the west. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$