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524
FXUS63 KILX 161948
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A cluster of thunderstorms will impact locations northwest of a
  Macomb to Lacon line this afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy
  downpours will be possible.

- Seasonably hot and humid weather is on tap this week. Heat index
  values will peak at or above 100 degrees both this afternoon and
  Monday afternoon before readings settle back into the middle to
  upper 90s for the remainder of the week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

19z/2pm analysis shows a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV)
tracking northeastward across eastern Iowa. The airmass
along/south of this feature is moderately unstable and weakly
sheared...with MLCAPEs of 2000-2500J/kg but 0-6km bulk shear of
only around 20kt. Given the instability/forcing present, a cluster
of thunderstorms has accompanied the vortex across southeast Iowa
into northwest Illinois. The primary severe weather risk with the
storms will be damaging wind gusts...and these will mostly remain
N/NW of the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Will need to keep an
eye on the S/SW flank of the MCV to monitor for additional
development. Regional satellite/radar mosaic has thus far shown
little to no development, but the potential exists for storms
along the outflow boundary on the southern edge of the strongest
forcing. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 8pm for
Knox, Stark, and Marshall counties to address this risk. Any
storms that skirt the N/NW CWA will exit into northern Illinois
after 01z/8pm...with warm/dry conditions anticipated everywhere
through the night.

As deep-layer moist advection from the western Gulf of Mexico
becomes better established, moisture profiles will become more
favorable for rainfall on Monday. However, no synoptic or
mesoscale boundaries will be present in order to serve as a focus
for development. As a result, am expecting another hot and humid
day with low chance PoPs (20-30%) for afternoon thunderstorms.
High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today in the
middle 90s, which will create heat index values in the 100-105
degree range. As was the case today, the heat will once again be
somewhat mitigated by a southwest breeze gusting over 20mph.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Much of the extended will feature hot and humid conditions with
highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat index readings in the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees. No appreciable frontal boundaries
will come into the region until next weekend when synoptic models
show a cold front settling southward into Illinois. As a result,
PoPs will remain at a minimum until next Saturday night into
Sunday.

Barnes
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&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Clusters of thunderstorms currently over northeast Missouri/southeast
Iowa will track northeastward this afternoon. While most of this
activity will remain northwest of the central Illinois terminals,
it will come close enough to justify VCTS at KPIA between 20z and
00z. Once the storms pass, dry weather is expected for the
remainder of the 18z TAF period. Winds will be SW at 10-15kt with
gusts of 20-25kt this afternoon, then the gusts will subside and
sustained SW winds of around 10kt will continue through the night.
Gusty SW winds will resume by mid-morning Monday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$