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069
FXUS64 KJAN 220526 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Rest of tonight...

Ridging at the sfc & aloft continue to build in, with RAP/evening
00Z upper air analysis indicate 595DM H5 ridge centered over the
the Mid-South. Dry environment continues to filter in from the
east, with around an inch or so PWs moving in. Another dry night,
mostly clear skies & seasonable lows in the upper 60s southeast
of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Updates are out./DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Tonight and Saturday: Deep layer ridging will continue over our
region during the near term. This will bring rain-free weather,
but increasingly hot and humid conditions, as we go into the
weekend. Heat indices rising to near 100 will be common by
Saturday afternoon with hotter conditions expected as we go
through the following days. /EC/

Saturday Night through Friday: Saturday Night through Friday...

No changes have been made to the forecast for the extended period.
The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry
airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this
weekend. Within this regime, afternoon temperatures will gradually
increase into the upper 90s to near 100 by Sunday. Around this
timeframe, low-level flow will begin to shift to the south and
moisture will begin to return to the area, with dewpoints climbing
into the low 70s. This will begin to yield heat indices in the 105
to 110 deg range in many areas. At the moment, no changes have
been made to the heat graphic for Sunday. Heading into the next
work week, mid/upper ridging will begin to break down and shrink
westward, resulting in a more perturbed northwest upper flow
pattern.

Rain chances will start to increase starting on Monday as deep layer
moisture continues to increase across the area. Hot conditions will
persist given the increased moisture allowing for heat indices to
reach critical thresholds. No changes have been made to the elevated
heat graphic for Monday/Tuesday. Heat trends will continued to be
monitored, and it is possible that a heat advisory may eventually
be needed for this timeframe. Heading into Wednesday-Thursday,
the precip coverage will have a big impact on the afternoon highs.
Model consensus has come into slightly better alignment heading
into Wednesday with guidance beginning to show a more somewhat
defined shortwave along with a potential cold front. This should
help increase greater rain and storm chances across central MS.
Forecast confidence is still low at this point regarding the
timing of this cold front. Trends will continued to be monitored
as we get closer to this event. Heading into Friday, rain chances
will continue to decrease across the area with scattered rain
showers possible along southeastern portions of the area.

Concerning the tropics, it appears current tropical cyclone
threats over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the near the
southeast Atlantic Coast will not be a concern for our immediate
area. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds overnight will generally be calm. However,
these will increase through late morning, eventually becoming
southerly at around 5 knots. /19/
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       95  73  96  76 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      97  72  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     95  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   96  73  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       95  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    96  76  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     96  74  98  76 /   0   0   0  20
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19