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563
FXUS64 KJAN 152038
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight and Monday...Low pressure is still over the region
keeping rain and clouds over the area. The heaviest rains today
have been over northeast Mississippi. A few thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over
the region. Guidance is still hinting at some fog potential across
the southern portions of the area overnight and have added the
fog into the forecast overnight. We may have to expand it or
possibly issue a Fog Advisory if things pan out. Rain and shower
chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens
Monday.

Monday night through Sunday...With the lingering boundary, rain chances
were extended into Tuesday generally south of I-20. Not sure how
fast clouds will thin out on Tuesday, so thinking it will be a few
degrees cooler than models show, but not significant enough to
make any changes. The latest NAM/GFS hold on to the boundary into
Wednesday afternoon/Thursday. Although the boundary will likely be
along the coast a few showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out along the hwy 84 corridor. Not confident, so will leave the 10
percent in the forecast, basically going with guidance pops and
temps through the forecast period.

The upper wave of what will be left of Francine by Tuesday should be
much weaker and headed south out of the area. The stalled front will
be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Upper level support didn`t
look great, but convergence along the boundary and some general
heating may support some thunderstorms in the afternoon. High
pressure was expected to squeeze in between disturbances around
Thursday and help to push everything out. The end of the week going
into the weekend looks dry. Although winds around the nearby
circulations on all levels were north/northeast, the airmass
building in from Mexico should bring some hot and dry air into the
region. Guidance has above normal high temperatures, where the
GFS 850mb model temps stay around 16-18 degree.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail for most of the area
through tonight as low stratus,rain and patchy fog continue across
the region.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       70  82  68  84 /  40  70  20  20
Meridian      68  81  65  84 /  70  70  20  20
Vicksburg     69  83  68  84 /  20  60  10  10
Hattiesburg   71  85  69  86 /  30  70  20  30
Natchez       67  84  68  84 /  10  50  10  20
Greenville    69  79  66  84 /  60  60  10   0
Greenwood     69  80  66  86 /  60  60  10   0
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/7