-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
060
FXUS62 KKEY 220226
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Showers have proliferated across the Straits of Florida within the
easterly flow, as well as along an outflow boundary from earlier
Cuban convection. This shower activity has raced northwestward and
a few island communities in the Lower and Middle Keys have
received measurable rainfall. There are a few culprits as to why
showers have so easily developed this evening. The 00Z sounding
sampled an uninhibited environment with ample CAPE and a PW value
over 2". We are also in a broad cyclonic regime, which has likely
helped spur on the activity. Interestingly enough, there has been
little lightning associated with these storms in our forecast
area until this past hour. In terms of winds tonight, marine
observation platforms are measuring mainly easterly winds around
10 knots along the Reef. This is a few knots lower than this
afternoon, and this decrease is in response to the weakening
pressure gradient between an expansive high in the western North
Atlantic and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto. This
weakening is being caused by a disruption in the gradient by a
well-defined area of low pressure just off the FL/GA coast. For
the remainder of the night, winds will remain out of the east and
continue to usher in deep tropical moisture. Shower activity is
expected to continue through the night, so have opted to maintain
50% rain chances. No changes were necessary to the forecast.
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&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the interaction
between low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure
centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity
of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east to
southeast breezes over the next few days. Moisture pulled into
our area via the low to the west will result in periods of
unsettled weather this weekend. High pressure building over the
North Atlantic early next week will result in light to gentle
southeast to south breezes and a return to near-normal rain and
thunder chances.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
next few hours at both island terminals. A TEMPO is in place at
EYW for a shower approaching the terminal. More short-term
amendments may be necessary later in the TAF period for
increasing shower activity, especially tomorrow during the day.
Surface winds outside of any convection will be out of the east at
10 to 15 knots. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots are also
possible.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
On this day in 1986, an F1 tornado caused $250k in damage between
Plantation Key and Tavernier. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the
central Gulf moving westward on the 23rd, so this tornado may
have been caused by the initial depression/circulation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  89  80  89 /  50  50  50  50
Marathon  80  90  80  90 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....DR

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