Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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085 FXUS63 KLBF 130935 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 435 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Cooler conditions today in the wake of a cold front. Far southwest Nebraska will still be quite warm though. - Severe thunderstorm potential increases Friday afternoon and Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. - Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend into the first of next week. There will be some threat for a few strong or severe storms, but the overall confidence in timing and location is low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold front will track southward through western and north central Nebraska today. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs settling back into the upper 70s and 80s. Far southwest Nebraska will be the last to see the front pass, and highs there will reach the lower 90s. A few late day showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in an upslope environment across eastern WY/CO. These will track east but should dissipate shortly after reaching western Nebraska this evening. A somewhat better chance for isolated to scattered elevated convection will develop after midnight tonight for areas west of Highway 183. A weak perturbation will move eastward from WY into western Nebraska. Mid-level lapse rates will be sufficiently steep, along with an increasing southeast H850mb flow around 30 kts transporting moisture northwestward. This activity may tend to increase some during the day Friday...as flow aloft transitions to more southwesterly and mid-level warm air advection increases. Attention then turns to the severe potential that could develop late Friday afternoon into Friday night. The cold front that crosses the area today will stall in Kansas Friday. The front will gradually wash out Friday afternoon as low-level flow turns southeasterly on the backside of surface high pressure across the Mississippi Valley region. A pool of high surface dew points (70-75F) will reside across OK into southeast KS. The southeast low-level flow will originate from this area...with dew points increasing into the lower 60s west of Highway 183 by late Friday afternoon. An instability axis will develop across western Nebraska with the return moisture. A bit uncertain on how it will all unfold. As mentioned earlier, there may be quite a bit of cloud cover and scattered elevated convection around through a good part of the day. It appears that more surface based type storms will develop in the moist upslope environment across eastern/northeast CO. These will then move eastward into the instability axis across western Nebraska Friday evening. Wind damage may be the biggest concern as they congeal into some sort of line segment or bowing structure.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Southwest flow aloft will persist though the weekend into next week. Hard to pinpoint convection timing and location, but with the southwest flow aloft and increased humidity/dew points, daily chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms seems reasonable. Saturday we may see scattered activity around for much of the day as a shortwave lifts northeast across CO and through Nebraska. Sunday looks interesting with a warm front draped across the area. Pooling of moisture near this front will lead to high CAPE values. Shear will be strong, especially north of the front. There are model differences in the frontal location. The ECMWF is across northern Nebraska while the NAM focuses the front across southern into southeast Nebraska. Despite the shear and instability, a strong capping inversion may keep it all quiet. Not seeing a real strong signal for forcing and it may be quite difficult to overcome the 15-17C H700mb temperatures. Beyond Sunday, as mentioned the southwest flow aloft will persist as a deep upper level trough anchors across the Pacific northwest. Can`t rule out convection developing within the flow as an open Gulf will help fuel instability. The limiting factor for widespread convection will be a strong capping inversion aided by continuous warm southwest flow aloft. With that said, there will be a nearly stationary front anchored across the region which could serve as a focus for initiation if capping can be overcome.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR ceilings will continue through Thursday evening with some high level cirrus being the only concern. Some stronger winds are possible during the day, though, across the entire region. Gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will be possible before diminishing by late afternoon to early evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Kulik