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316
FXUS66 KLOX 241232
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
532 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/901 AM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will keep the night
through morning low clouds and fog pattern going with low clouds
reaching the foothills each day. There will be patchy drizzle each
morning. The near shore area will see limited or no clearing through
Saturday. High pressure will bring better clearing and warmer
temperatures to the area starting Sunday and continuing into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...24/422 AM.

Another in a seemingly endless series of days with a very deep
marine layer across the region, now over 5000 feet deep. Low
clouds have pushed all the way into the mountain slopes and into
the far interior valleys of SLO and SBA Counties, and some clouds
could even spill into the Antelope Valley for a few hours this
morning. With the very deep marine layer in place, cyclonic flow
aloft, and some low level lift, there could be some drizzle this
morning, especially in the foothills and mtn slopes south of
Point Conception.

A positively tilted trough extending from the Pac NW into northern
CA will sharpen some as it moves into the forecast area this
afternoon. There may be enough lift and instability within the
deep moist layer to bring a few showers to the mountains this
afternoon and early this evening. With the trough axis remaining
to the west of the region for most of the day, and with very
strong onshore gradients, expect another slow clearing day. Skies
may stay mostly cloudy for much of the day, especially in coastal
and valley areas of L.A./VTU Counties. Strong onshore gradients
will likely produce advisory level winds in the Antelope Valley
and the adjacent foothills, and Wind Advisories are in effect
there for this afternoon and evening. Winds may get close to
advisory levels as well through the Highway 14 Corridor in the
mountains of L.A. County, and advisories may have to be extended
into that area as well. It will be another unseasonably cool day
with highs topping out in the 60s in most coastal and valley areas,
with a few 70-degree readings possible.

N-S gradients will increase across SLO and SBA Counties this
afternoon and evening, and there will be some subsidence once the
trough axis passes that area. Expect gusty NW winds to reach
advisory levels across much of southwestern SBA Counties this
afternoon and evening.

The trough axis will swing through the region this evening and
early tonight, then a broad NW flow pattern aloft will set up
across the area later tonight and Sat. The models show some
reduction in low clouds tonight, which make sense since cooling
aloft will wipe out any weak marine inversion. Expect a rather
less solid and rather haphazard cloud field tonight and Sat
morning, and there should be more in the way of sunshine in most
areas Sat afternoon. Due to increased sunshine and small height
rises, expect a couple of degrees of warming in most areas Sat,
though temps should still be below normal. Strong N-S gradients
will likely produce another round of advisory level winds across
the southwestern coast of SBA County and the western Santa Ynez
mtns late Sat afternoon and evening.

The flow aloft will become more zone Sat night and Sun, and
heights will rise a bit. Expect the marine layer to reorganize,
but it will likely be less deep, with night thru morning low
clouds and fog confined mainly to coastal and valley areas Sat
night/Sun morning. Expect mostly sunny skies in most areas Sunday
afternoon, with a few degrees of warming due to height rises,
warming at 950 mb and slight weakening of the onshore gradients.
High temps will likely rise into the 80s in the Antelope Valley,
and could even approach 80 degrees in the Salinas and Cuyama
Valleys. Temps should rise into the mid to possibly upper 70s in
the warmest valley locations in L.A. and Ventura Counties.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...24/526 AM.

Models are in fairly good agreement in showing an upper low
moving toward the coast of southwestern Canada Mon and Tue, then
dropping slowly southeastward thru the Pacific NW Wed and Thu.
Heights across the region gradually rise Mon and Tue, then change
little for Wed and Thu. Onshore gradients remain rather strong
thru the period. Overall, expect rather benign weather Mon
thru Thu, with areas of night/morning low clouds in coastal and
most valley areas. Max temps should rise a bit Mon and Tue, with
little change Wed and Thu, with max temps Tue thru Thu at near
normal levels for the end of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
24/1227Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3700 ft deep. The top of the
weak inversion was at 6300 feet with a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs.

Low confidence in remainder of TAFs. For TAF sites south of Point
Conception, there is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs after 03Z Sat.
North of Point Conception, CIGs could return a flight cat higher
than forecast as early as 03Z Sat.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent of BKN025
conds after 03Z Sat through the rest of the period. Flight Cat
changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. High confidence in any east
wind component remaining less than 6 kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. confidence in TAF. Flight Cat
changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 40 percent of
BKN025 conds after 03Z Sat through the rest of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
24/532 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence in wind forecast relative to sea forecast.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
and seas are expected through at least late tonight, with a 60-80
percent chance of SCA winds continuing through Sunday. Winds may
drop below SCA levels late Sat night/Sun morning. There is a 40
percent chance of SCA level winds on Monday increasing to 60
percent on Tuesday.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is an
80 percent chance of SCA conds this afternoon and night, and
again on Saturday afternoon and night. There is a 30 percent
chance of SCA winds during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday
and Monday.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 70-80 percent chance
of SCA level winds across the western and central portions of the
Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, and again
Saturday afternoon and evening. Farther to the south, there is a
30-40 percent chance of SCA level winds pushing into the western
portion of the southern inner waters this evening and again
Saturday evening. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels
Sunday through Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zones 349-351-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox