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FXUS64 KLZK 141027 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
527 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Ongoing convection across SRN/SWRN MO continues to drop south
towards AR early this Fri morning...with potential this activity
will remain ongoing for at least some time as it moves closer to the
state. Have increased POPs across NRN/NWRN sections of the CWA this
morning...gradually decreasing to the south as there should be
weakening over time.

By this afternoon...most of central/SRN AR should remain dry...but a
weak boundary or residual outflow boundaries from this morning
convection will result in at least some potential for afternoon
convection to refire. The best chances for this new convection this
afternoon will be across the NRN third of the CWA. An isolated
storng/SVR TSRA could be seen given ample forecast CAPE...but pulse
type convection looks to be the primary storm mode given very low
SHR.

Beyond the small precip chances...hot/humid conditions will continue
to become the norm starting this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s...with dewpts in the 60s to
low 70s. This will result in heat index values rising to around or
just over 100 for many locations...but most areas should remain
below Heat Adv levels today. A similar story looks to be seen for
Sat as well with regarding temps...though a deg or two warmer
possibly. Heat index values will also get to around 100...though a
few locations may approach the 105 mark Sat afternoon. Will need to
keep a close eye on this as a Heat Adv may be needed for some areas
if conditions get worse than currently expected. Most areas should
remain dry for Sat given an upper level high rotating overhead. Even
so...cannot completely rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA Sat afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the region
on Sunday, but starting to wobble to the east. This will be the
hottest day of the period, with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s in southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. In these parts
of the state, heat index values will max out between 100 and 105
degrees. This is close to but not quite Heat Advisory criteria.

Early next week, the ridge will relocate over areas from New England
to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the southeast United states.
On the back side of the high, moisture will increase a bit locally,
and this will lead to isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
Monday through Thursday. A few of us will get rain, with most of the
region remaining dry. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the
weekend, but still above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Expect the dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF
period. Some isolated convection could be seen across NRN sections
this afternoon/early evening. Otherwise...most sites should remain
dry. Winds will remain less than 10 kts sustained.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  72  92  72 /  20  20  10   0
Camden AR         97  68  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       91  70  90  70 /  30  20  10   0
Hot Springs AR    96  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  97  75  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     95  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  91  70  90  70 /  30  20  10   0
Newport AR        95  74  94  73 /  20  20  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     96  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   96  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
Searcy AR         95  73  95  72 /  10  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      95  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...62