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500
FXUS64 KLZK 211751
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An upper level ridge continues to retrograde west. Subsidence will
continue over the area and will result in decreased rain chances.
Expect dry conditions today and Saturday.

Highs today and Saturday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With
dew points remaining in the 60s today, heat indices should remain
below advisory criteria. Some dew points will climb into the lower
70s Saturday increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s and in the lower to mid 70s Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure wobbling
toward the southern Rockies/southern Plains. We will be under the
eastern periphery of the ridge, with well above average temperatures
expected. A weak northwest flow aloft will guide a cold front toward
Arkansas from the central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday into
Monday. It appears the front may get as far as southern Missouri
before exiting back to the north by Tuesday.

Moisture will increase a bit ahead of the front, and cannot rule out
isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms. These will be very
spotty, and most of us will not get rain. More importantly, as
moisture levels tick higher, heat index values will become
oppressive. Maximum heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees
across much of the state Sunday through Tuesday. Heat Advisories
will likely be required.

By Wednesday, a trough of low pressure will cut through the upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A northerly
flow aloft will become more pronounced locally, and that will bring
another cold front toward the area. This front may have enough legs
to make it into if not through Arkansas. Better chances of showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front, followed by slightly
cooler/drier and less oppressive air to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad clockwise circulation
over Arkansas early this afternoon, indicative of high pressure
aloft that will define this TAF cycle. Between afternoon scattered
cumulus development and high cloud coverage VFR condtions are
expected to hold over the next 24 hours with light generally
southerly winds in place. Opted for one line TAFs because the
impact of scattered 6kft clouds and cirrus clouds is
inconsequential to the aviation community.

Cavanaugh
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     71  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         71  96  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       69  92  73  93 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    71  95  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     73  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  93  73  93 /   0   0  10  20
Newport AR        74  95  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     73  95  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   72  96  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         71  95  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      75  94  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...Cavanaugh