Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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790 ACUS11 KWNS 151843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151842 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-152045- Mesoscale Discussion 1268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming...and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151842Z - 152045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based storm development will continue -- initially over the higher terrain but spreading eastward with time. A few strong gusts are possible, but isolated nature of this risk suggests that WW issuance will likely not be required. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating across the central High Plains region is supporting modest destabilization, and initiation of high-based convection -- most notably from southeastern Wyoming southward into the central Colorado Front Range. The convection is developing above a deep mixed layer, where dewpoints are generally now observed in the 40s and 50s across the area. Flow aloft remains generally weak over the central High Plains, and CAPE limited, suggesting that storms should remain largely disorganized this afternoon. However, given potential for evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer, a few enhanced gusts capable of producing wind damage will be locally possible across the area into this evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42880404 43000309 42570231 41610193 40650224 40050498 40450555 41910502 42650447 42880404