-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
947
FXUS64 KMEG 151005
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
505 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend. Rain
chances increase early next week along with a brief break from the
heat. Hot and dry weather returns by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The main talking point for this forecast package is the heat
today and tomorrow. A stout midlevel ridge is currently building
over the Mid-South, which will trap an unseasonably hot airmass
in place for the remainder of the weekend. For context, NAEFS mean
surface temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of climatology
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will start in the mid 90s today,
climbing to the upper 90s tomorrow. This isn`t necessarily a
record-breaking heatwave, but it is still a full 6-7 degrees
above normal for mid June. Heat indices are expected to reach
triple digits both today and tomorrow, hovering right in the
100-104 degree range. There are a couple locations that may just
barely reach 105 heat index (especially tomorrow), but this is
likely too isolated to warrant any heat headlines this weekend.

The midlevel ridge looks to shift east over the Carolinas by
Monday, allowing southerly flow to make a quick return here in the
Mid-South. This will support a meridional moisture plume surging
up the Lower MS River Valley, enhanced by ample Gulf moisture. The
latest NBM run came in with a significantly wetter solution for
early next week, likely picking up on this large swath of
moisture advection especially in the MS Delta region. PoPs are now
in the 30-50% range Monday and Tuesday afternoons with more
widespread cloud cover, which will in turn help keep temperatures
capped around 90 degrees.

As the aforementioned ridge retrogrades back over to the TN Valley
midweek, the heat returns and squashes any widespread rain
potential. There could certainly be some diurnally driven
convection in the afternoons, but it`s mostly a dry forecast from
Wednesday onward with a gradual warming trend. We should be back
in the mid to upper 90s by late week with no foreseeable relief
from the heat per the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature
outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR. Light winds. Not seeing much of a signal for fog at the
outlying sites so did not include.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM