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846
FXUS64 KMEG 181546
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1046 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A quiet and relatively cool morning across the Mid-South at this
hour. Temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to to around 80
degrees at 1030 AM. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals isolated
light showers moving north across the area. Aloft, a 595dam ridge
is analyzed over the Carolinas with a longwave trough over the PAC
NW. The Lower Mississippi Valley remains on the western periphery
of the ridge with a shortwave lifting north through the ArkLaMiss
region right now. With limited heating due to heavy cloud cover,
convective coverage should be much less than yesterday.
Nonetheless, several isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through late afternoon across much
of the Mid-South.

Went ahead and expanded PoPs across the area to account for short
term trends and the latest Hi-Res model guidance. Convective
coverage should remain rather sparse today, warranting only 20 to
30 PoPs at best. Dry and hot conditions will return on Wednesday
and persist through late week as strong upper level high pressure
builds in across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AC3
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&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A warm and humid airmass in place across the Mid-South will result
in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm today, especially northwest of I-40. Rain chances
will diminish tonight into the upcoming weekend as a strong
upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the middle to
upper 90s by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are
anticipated to increase for late weekend into early next week as a
backdoor cold front drops into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends center an upper-level ridge
over the Carolinas with a longwave trough axis extending from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba back through the Western U.S. A plume of
low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to advect up
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
show a few rain showers beginning to develop across north
Mississippi early this morning. Otherwise, relatively rain free
conditions prevail across much of the area at this moment.
Temperatures remain warm in the lower 70s areawide as of 3 AM
CDT.

Short-term model trends indicate the Mid-South will remain on the
western periphery of an upper-level ridge axis today. Isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be
possible during the day mostly northwest of I-40. Precipitable
water values in this corridor around the 90th percentile for June
may result in the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Model
soundings indicate low to mid-level dry air over Alabama will
begin to filter into the remainder of the area throughout the day,
resulting in less convective coverage than Monday.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis will begin to
retrograde west and strengthen for Wednesday through Saturday,
resulting in mainly rain free conditions and a return of hot
temperatures. NAEFS indicates 500/200 mb heights will be 2-3
standard deviations above normal with afternoon temperatures
approaching the middle to upper 90s for late week into the start
of the upcoming weekend. Long-term model trends show a potential
for increased rain chances for late weekend into early next week
as another back door cold front tries to drop into the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few showers may impact MEM and JBR before midday today but a
strengthening ridge building in from the east should limit
coverage of showers/storms this afternoon. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected with southeast wind 5-10kt.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS