-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
053
FXUS64 KMEG 151735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A hot morning across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are
already in the upper 80s to 90 degrees with heat index values in
the mid 90s to 100F. Aloft, a 590dam ridge is centered over the
Mid-South with a shortwave trough over the Central plains. Strong
subsidence over the region will result in temperatures climbing
into the mid to upper 90s areawide this afternoon. A weak warm
front is analyzed along just north and nearly parallel to I-40.
This is an area of pooling moisture, indicated by low to mid 70
dewpoint temperatures. These dewpoints will mix down slightly as
the front washes out this afternoon, allowing dewpoints to fall
into the upper 60s. Nonetheless, the combination hot temperatures
and humidity will cause heat index values to climb into the triple
digits areawide. Heat index values will climb to near 104F in the
warmest spots, but should not exceed the 105F Heat Advisory
Criteria. A stray shower could sneak under the ridge this
afternoon, but PoPs will remain 10 percent or less across the
region.

Went ahead and nudged high temperatures up a degree to account
for short term trends and the latest model guidance. The rest of
the forecast is in good shape with no further changes needed at
this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend. Rain
chances increase early next week along with a brief break from the
heat. Hot and dry weather returns by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The main talking point for this forecast package is the heat
today and tomorrow. A stout midlevel ridge is currently building
over the Mid-South, which will trap an unseasonably hot airmass
in place for the remainder of the weekend. For context, NAEFS mean
surface temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of climatology
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will start in the mid 90s today,
climbing to the upper 90s tomorrow. This isn`t necessarily a
record-breaking heatwave, but it is still a full 6-7 degrees
above normal for mid June. Heat indices are expected to reach
triple digits both today and tomorrow, hovering right in the
100-104 degree range. There are a couple locations that may just
barely reach 105 heat index (especially tomorrow), but this is
likely too isolated to warrant any heat headlines this weekend.

The midlevel ridge looks to shift east over the Carolinas by
Monday, allowing southerly flow to make a quick return here in the
Mid-South. This will support a meridional moisture plume surging
up the Lower MS River Valley, enhanced by ample Gulf moisture. The
latest NBM run came in with a significantly wetter solution for
early next week, likely picking up on this large swath of
moisture advection especially in the MS Delta region. PoPs are now
in the 30-50% range Monday and Tuesday afternoons with more
widespread cloud cover, which will in turn help keep temperatures
capped around 90 degrees.

As the aforementioned ridge retrogrades back over to the TN Valley
midweek, the heat returns and squashes any widespread rain
potential. There could certainly be some diurnally driven
convection in the afternoons, but it`s mostly a dry forecast from
Wednesday onward with a gradual warming trend. We should be back
in the mid to upper 90s by late week with no foreseeable relief
from the heat per the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature
outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the entire Mid-
South through the TAF period, although convective activity
appears possible at some sites starting tomorrow afternoon from
the latest high resolution CAM guidance. Have elected to go with a
VCSH at MEM and MKL until further details can be refined.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JPR