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451
FXUS62 KMHX 220641
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
241 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area
dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system
moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return
to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday...Guidance continues to back off on
fog/stratus development offshore of NOBX. Along and west of hwy
17 continues to be the main fog concern for tonight with high
pressure overhead and calm winds resulting in dew point
depressions near 0 and ample low level moisture. Current
indication is Pitt and Martin counties will be spared from the
most dense fog, but areas south are likely to experience 1/4
mile or less visibilities early this morning. Introduced
Widespread fog with 1/4SM vis mentions with this update along
hwy 17 from the Onslow/Duplin/Pender county borders up to
Washington, NC. Patchy dense fog is still possible elsewhere in
the CWA this morning.

Lows this morning will be in the upper 50s, near 60 through the
CWA.

Surface high pressure shifts further offshore today, with lee-
troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to
a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal
Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses
beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10
degrees higher than today, in the mid to upper 80s inland.
While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be
enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon
convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX
where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a
few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday... Sfc high is offshore to our east
tonight, with ridging continuing to build over us at higher
levels from the SW. Quiet night in store, with lows in the low
to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s for beaches. Some patchy
fog is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
along hwy 17, but confidence and impacts remain low enough to
prevent an inclusion in this forecast update.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from
the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come
through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and
more unsettled end the long term.

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across
the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through
Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Thu,
temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some areas
may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the
60s.

Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our
west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves
impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of
these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the
high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal
system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs
generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact
ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday
into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with
them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances
in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe
weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure will shift offshore
by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the
high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture
through tonight. As temp/dewpoint have decreased with winds
tonight, there is a high likelihood of dense fog developing and
overspreading the area from SW to NE, particularly along hwy
17. LIFR/VLIFR Visibilities less than 1/4 SM and ceilings
BKN/OVC002 are possible through and shortly after sunset, with
the worst conditions peaking between 5am and 7am. Return to VFR
flight cats by midmorning WED with another day of fair- weather
diurnal CU out ahead of the seabreeze which will turn light and
var winds more Serly in the afternoon and evening. Another round
of patchy fog is possible Wednesday night, but much less
impactful than the fog expected this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early
through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...Recent iterations of the quick refresh
HiRes guidance have continued backing off on fog/stratus
development offshore of NOBX this morning. Fog for inland sounds
and rivers are still possible through the early morning. Light
winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating
conditions for most waters during the daylight hours Wednesday.
Another chance of fog Wednesday night, but impacts are expected
to be much lower than this morning`s potential.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control
through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds
pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds
come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of
showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RJ