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093
FXUS63 KMKX 071841
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
141 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Rain likely on Saturday with a very small chance of thunder

- Sunday better weather day of the weekend

- More thunderstorms possible later on Tuesday
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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Issued 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tonight and Saturday:
High clouds are possible tonight, otherwise fair weather is
expected for southern Wisconsin. Lower atmosphere decouples,
resulting in very light wind speeds after sunset.

Flow aloft will include an upper level jet beginning Saturday
morning. Forecast area should fall underneath the right rear
quadrant (RRQ) of this jet through early Saturday afternoon. It
appears there is just enough dynamics and lift to produce
widespread showers after 12Z Saturday. The timing of this wave
is not favorable for much, if any, thunderstorm activity on
Saturday. Timing of rain will be early in the day, especially in
the western half of the forecast area. Regardless, confidence is
high for categorical PoPs and considerable cloud cover.

Aforementioned wave then moves east, drying things out by
Saturday evening across southern Wisconsin. Overall, wind speeds
should remain light with more northerly flow above the surface.

KPL
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Saturday night through Friday:
Forecast question for Saturday evening and night is how long
clouds persist over southern Wisconsin. Rain should end by
Saturday evening, but clouds are likely to linger. Will
gradually see decrease cloud cover later Saturday night over
entire forecast area.

Sunday could very well start off mostly sunny, but airmass
destabilizes during the afternoon with some residual moisture and
cooler air aloft. There is some CAPE over southern Wisconsin, so
can`t rule out a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.
Later shifts can assess whether thunderstorm coverage will
increase, but will keep in very low PoPs for now.

Heights will build aloft for Sunday night and Monday for dry
conditions across the forecast area. This also looks to continue
into Monday night with surface high pressure over the state.

Another change coming on Tuesday as a modest shortwave cuts
through the flow and providing lift. As long as the moisture is
available (and it should be), southern Wisconsins should expect a
round of thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

As far as the rest of next week goes, area under the influence of
zonal flow aloft and likely a series of shortwaves through Friday.
This pattern generally leads to widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorm activity and breezy conditions. Southern Wisconsin
should have normal to slightly above normal temperatures during
this period.

KPL
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions prevail until 10Z Saturday across southern
Wisconsin. Cloud cover will increase later tonight, as a
shortwave approaches. This will eventually lower ceilings to IFR
conditions at most terminals through Saturday morning with
widespread light rainfall. Ceilings and visibilities should
slightly improve again Saturday afternoon before completely
drying out by Saturday evening. Saturday night should return to
VFR.

KPL
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Nearshore conditions to improve by this evening, as winds
decrease along Lake Michigan. Cloud cover will increase
overnight. Additionally, winds will become more south or
southwest tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest.
Although surface winds and wave heights will drop later tonight,
the winds will gradually become more northerly and gusty by
Saturday night into Sunday. Low clouds and rain will also move
over Lake Michigan by Saturday afternoon, continuing into the
evening hours. Drying out again for Saturday night and early
Sunday.

KPL
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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