-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
940
FXUS66 KMTR 010619
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1119 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Cooler conditions begin tomorrow with temperatures near seasonal
averages across most of the region. Warmer temperatures return
Tuesday with moderate HeatRisk through the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Coastal stratus is degrading across the Central Coast and remains
mostly intact along the Big Sur coast and in patches near Marina and
Santa Cruz. Elsewhere, skies remain clear through the day with
stratus returning overnight across the coast and into Monterey Bay,
the Morgan Hill-Hollister corridor, and the East Bayshore. High
temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages today with
the interior valleys seeing temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s,
the Bayshore hovering in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and the coast
seeing highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows tomorrow morning will
generally hover in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with some of the higher
peaks reaching into the low 60s. High resolution models are
suggesting a chance for some coastal drizzle early Saturday morning,
but any accumulations will be minimal (less than a tenth of an
inch).

A cooling trend should start on Saturday as we feel the fringe
effects of a shortwave trough coming through the Pacific Northwest,
allowing the building of a deeper marine layer. Temperatures will
cool to around the seasonal average for most of the region, with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, the mid 60s to lower 70s
along the Bayshore, and the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast.
The interior valleys of the North bay and southern Central Coast
remain relatively warm as they retain high temperatures into the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Temperatures remain close to seasonal averages through Monday as a
larger trough builds and comes into the Pacific Northwest, with the
peak effects on Monday when the North Bay valleys get a day of
relief as their highs fall to a seasonal upper 70s to lower 80s in
the region.

A warming trend begins on Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds
into the western United States. Model ensemble clusters continue to
show some disagreement on the strength and location of the ridge
axis, leading to considerable uncertainty on just how hot it will
get across the region. As of now the latest forecast shows highs
peaking on Wednesday, from the 90s into the lower 100s across the
interior regions while the coastal areas see highs in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. A moderate HeatRisk is in place for the inland regions,
with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in most people
sensitive to heat.

CPC products continue to suggest that temperatures above seasonal
averages continue through the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024


VFR persists through the TAF period for the majority of terminals
with the exception of Monterey Bay, KSFO, and KOAK where IFR
conditions are expected overnight. KSFO may see SCT low clouds
develop over the terminal this morning, later forming a CIG to usher
in IFR conditions. In the daytime, VFR will return and winds will
increase to become moderate and gusty with many coastal terminals
seeing winds reach up to 15-20 knots. Winds will be largely out of
the W, later turning to develop a slight SW component. It is not
until early Sunday that winds are expected to fully diminish.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR, though low clouds will begin to
push over the terminal vicinity as stratus continues to travel north
along the CA coastline. Models do not have good agreement, but seem
to suggest intermittent CIGs forming at KSFO early Saturday morning.
Therefore, have included a TEMPO in the TAF to reflect this, though
confidence on CIG formation is low. Come the later morning, VFR is
expected to return, with winds strengthening rapidly to become
strong and gusty. Gusty winds will reach into the 30 kt range in the
afternoon, and will remain gusty through the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions last through the first
portion of the TAF period with clearing not expected until the late
morning of Saturday as stratus begins to mix out. CIGs lowering to
become LIFR this morning is not out of the question, though
confidence is currently low, therefore have kept IFR conditions in
the TAF. Winds increase in the daytime out of the W to become
moderate in the afternoon around 15 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue over the outer
waters into the weekend with gale force winds expected late Friday
and into Saturday. This will cause a hazardous marine environment.
Significant wave heights will reach up to about 11-12 feet Friday
afternoon, but will begin to reduce today through the remainder
of the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...Murdock

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