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164
FXUS63 KOAX 040722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
222 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few spotty thunderstorms possible (10-15% chance)
  this afternoon in far southeast Nebraska and far southwest
  Iowa.

- Higher storm chances Tuesday afternoon (60-90%) with a
  15-20% chance of severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska
  and southwest Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  primary threats.

- Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers
  and storms move through northeast Nebraska tomorrow afternoon.

- Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid
  70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today and Tonight...

Monday night satellite imagery indicated an area of low pressure
churning over eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri.
Additionally, an area of convection festered over west-central
Nebraska in response to an approaching cold front attendant to a low
over southern Canada.

This boundary will continue to trek eastward through the morning
hours, bringing increasing chances of precipitation to the region
throughout the day. Increasing warm air advection will begin to
develop after 7 AM, and could help spark a few morning storms in
eastern Nebraska ahead of the incoming front, where dry low levels
could result in a stray strong gust or two due to evaporative
cooling. During the afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to
develop and strong convergence along the front is expected to result
in an increasing-in-coverage line of showers and storms. The latest
CAM solutions depict storms initiating to the northwest of the Omaha
and Lincoln metros by around 2-3 PM, with those storms exiting to
the east by 9 PM.

Weak shear of less than 20 kts will lower the ceiling of any severe
threat with storms this afternoon. The highest potential for severe
storms is expected to occur at peak heating and shortly after when
instability is maximized, with largely straight line hodographs
pushing the main hazard towards damaging hail and wind (though a
tornado can`t be ruled out in far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa). Cloud cover associated with the area of low pressure spinning
off to our southeast over parts of Kansas and Missouri could muddle
severe potential/destabilization, however at least a few storms are
expected to bubble up this afternoon.

In addition to severe threats, another concern will be heavy
rainfall. While this line of storms does look to be fairly
progressive today, It wouldn`t take much new rainfall to produce
flooding over recently saturated soils.

Wednesday and Beyond:

With the front moving off to the east for Wednesday, we`ll find
ourselves in a northwesterly mid/upper flow pattern with the main
jet streak settled nearly overhead to just north of the area. Rain
chances for the remainder of the work week remain low, but there
could be a pop up storm or two that develops as a shortwave moves
through the flow Wednesday or Friday evening. Highs during this time
will remain nice in the upper 70s to 80s with typical afternoon
winds of 20 to 25 mph keeping things from feeling stagnant outside.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Southerly winds ranging from 5 to 15 knots will prevail at all
TAF sites until the passage of a cold front tomorrow afternoon.
The front will likely move through the area sometime between 17Z
and 22Z. After 18Z, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front across portions of
southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska (KLNK and KOMA). These
storms may be strong to severe, with wind gusts up to 50 knots
and hail up to quarter size. Storms should be south and east of
all TAF sites by 00Z. Winds post-front will prevail
northwesterly at 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Darrah