-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
870
FXUS62 KRAH 080604
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will settle over the region through Saturday,
then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A passing disturbance
and approaching cold front will bring unsettled weather Sunday
evening and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Friday...

Evening observed data, including satellite imagery and upper air
analyses, confirm that the current forecast is on track, with only
small tweaks needed. GOES layer WV imagery shows well the deeply dry
air over and just W and NW of NC, confirmed by 00z proximity and
upstream sounding depicting well below normal PWs. These soundings
also show a pronounced warm/stable layer from 750-500 mb over the
region with fairly high dewpoint depressions through the column,
further reinforcing the forecast of clear skies. With a very light
primarily northwesterly wind tonight, expect lows in the upper 50s
to mid 60s, generally near to a few degrees below normal. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 145 PM: In the wake of the exiting front,
weak high pressure will build into the southern Appalachians through
early Saturday. Good radiational cooling underneath clear skies,
light winds, and a dry airmass will yield a wide range of
temperatures overnight ranging from mid 50s in the cooler locations
to lower/mid 60s in sheltered areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Underneath broad troughiness aloft, weak sfc high pressure extending
across the area early in the day will give way to the development of
a pre-frontal sfc trough over the NC Piedmont by the afternoon and
evening.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the afternoon with temps and
humidity levels not that dissimilar to today; highs 85 to 90 with BL
dewpoints in the 50s making it feel 3-4 degrees cooler.

Decaying remnants of a convectively enhanced disturbance will move
into the area during the evening5 However, given the dry stable
airmass in place, conditions will remain dry with only an increase
in cloud cover expected. Lows in the lower to mid 60s, with some
upper 50s possible in the cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 204 AM Saturday...

Guidance has been trending drier for the extended, but some
continued uncertainty means we cannot fully rule out chances of
showers/storms in the beginning and latter part of next week.

We will likely start the week with WNW flow at mid-levels, thanks to
a trough extending from the OH valley into the NE US. A The cold
frontal passage from Sun night will settle across the Deep South and
promote lower highs and comfortable humidity levels to start the
work week. Cool high pressure looks to build into the region thru
midweek from the OH valley, favoring highs near to perhaps slightly
below normal in the low to mid 80s Mon/Tue. Some upper 70s are
possible across our northern zones on Tue. Lows should also be
comfortable with mid 50s to low 60s. While the early part of the
week has been trending drier given the aforementioned pattern,
models are still unclear on the track of an embedded shortwave Mon
night/Tue morning. The ECMWF remains strongest and furthest west
than the other guidance, which would favor a better chance of
showers. The pattern is not very supportive overall given a drier
airmass and stable conditions, but have retained low chances of rain
if the strong ECMWF solution verifies.

The latter part of the week would support a slight uptick each day
of the chances of diurnal showers or storms, as well as highs rising
above normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with corresponding
increasing humidity levels. Most guidance indicates weak ridging Wed
that transitions to a quasi-zonal flow at mid-levels. At the
surface, a Bermuda high and lee trough setting up would favor a
return to warm southerly flow. Where models disagree is whether a
trough over the Plains to lower MS valley Wed/Thu could interact
with a potential disturbance in the Gulf and increase or storm
chances. Ensemble solutions are mixed on the fetch of southerly flow
from the Gulf and whether any system would stay south or ride up the
SE US late in the week. For now, outside of any influence from any
system, storm chances will remain on the low end, highest on
Thu/Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /006 SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail across central NC
through the TAF period.

Outlook: A cold front and upper disturbance could bring some showers
or storms Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Model guidance is
trending towards mostly dry VFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett