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257
FXUS61 KRLX 271942
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
342 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated strong storms are possible through early this evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will see additional shower and
thunderstorm chances before drying out Thursday into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

A cold front evident in both satellite imagery and surface
observations draped from just west of CLE into southern Indiana will
slowly make its way toward the forecast area this afternoon into
this evening. The warm sector ahead of this feature is largely
capped near H750 with temperatures 7-9C at this level with surface
parcels struggling to warm enough to punch through given a heavy SCT
to BKN flat cumulus field.  There are a couple areas of better
insolation at this hour, one immediately ahead of a prefrontal
trough located 50-100 miles ahead of the aforementioned cold front,
and another situated between the prefrontal trough and cold front.
This may yield some better chances for cap violation and resultant
convection through this afternoon as these features translate east.
Guidance has been running a little high on dew points and perhaps a
tiny bit low on temperatures yielding less conditional instability
than previous progged, perhaps 500 to 700 J/kg MLCAPE with deep
layer shear around 30KTs and modest low level curvature in
hodographs yielding perhaps 90m2/s2 SRH. This will yield a
conditional risk for strong to severe storms ahead of the cold front
this afternoon into early this evening, mainly across the eastern
half of the forecast area. Damaging winds are the primary threat
expected, although couldn`t rule out a brief spin-up. Given the
aforementioned limiting factors for convective coverage, currently
thinking the threat will be rather limited.

Any convection wanes fairly quickly this evening with loss of
heating.

Weak dry advection and modest boundary layer flow should help limit
any fog formation overnight to the most protected valleys that saw
any heavier rain over the last couple days.

Another round of showers and storms are expected Tuesday with an
approaching shortwave as the primary focusing mechanism. May see
forcing arrive a little too early, late morning into very early
afternoon with the resultant uptick in cloud cover limiting surface
based destabilization and this would limit severe potential despite
deep layer shear increasing to around 40KTs. Will need to monitor
destabilization trends through the late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday, with
  dry conditions thereafter.
* Cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday as weak upper waves periodically pivot through a broad
scale upper trough across the eastern CONUS. Shower/storm
potential (SCT to Numerous) will peak during Wednesday
afternoon/evening courtesy of diurnal heating, but ISOL
activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning remains possible
given some upper forcing across the region. The chance for rain
will quickly taper Wednesday night as drier air and high
pressure begin to build into the region, with dry conditions
then persisting through the remainder of the period. While a few
strong storms are possible on Wednesday, the severe threat in
general remains low.

High temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday will be seasonably
chilly - upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with mid 50s
to mid 60s in the mountains. A sun/cloud mix on Wednesday will
give way to mostly sunny skies on Thursday. It will be chilly at
night, particularly Thursday night, with the potential for frost
Friday morning in the typical mountain valley cold spots.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* High pressure provides dry weather on Friday into the first
  half of the weekend.
* Isolated showers/storms return on Sunday into Monday.
* Gradual warming trend late week into early next week.

Surface high pressure remains in control on Friday as it begins to
gradually traverse the region from northwest to southeast into the
start of the weekend. This results in a beautiful end to the work
week amid mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures -
highs in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands. After a dry and
cool Friday night, temperatures warm ~ 5-10 degrees on Saturday
courtesy of return flow. The chance for isolated showers/storms
returns on Sunday into Monday as moisture advection continues
with southwest low/mid level mean layer flow. In the absence of
any large scale forcing mechanism, activity at this point
generally looks to be diurnally driven, with PoPs capped at
30-40% across the region for the time being. High temperatures
are progged to return to the mid 80s by Monday for the lowlands.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday...

In the wake of morning convection, largely seeing surface parcels
capped around 6000 ft msl with a mainly flat cumulus field
developing across the region. With additional heating this
afternoon, should see some updrafts beginning to sneak through the
warm layer aloft with isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances will be along a prefrontal trough currently just west of the
forecast area and associated cold front around 100SM farther back to
the west. Given expected very limited coverage, plan to address with
only VCSH and VCTS at some terminals with the 18Z TAF package.

Any convection settles down quickly this evening with the loss of
surface heating. Clearing skies overnight along with recent locally
heavy rainfall may be able to offset modest dry air advection and
modest boundary layer flow to yield some patchy fog that could
potentially affect the more prone terminals, mainly CRW and EKN.
Will code BR for these locations to reflect this potential.

Winds generally southwesterly 7-12KTs with some gusts up into the
upper teens/lower 20s through this afternoon, turning west-
northwesterly after trough/cold frontal passage this afternoon into
this evening. Winds taper off overnight turning back to the
southwest heading into daybreak. Some additional gusts into the
teens/low 20s will be possible Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated convective coverage this
afternoon could affect any terminal. Patchy valley fog possible
overnight tonight may be more dense than advertised.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JP