-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
073
FXUS61 KRLX 290523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High
pressure Thursday into the weekend. Disturbances bring showers
and storms late Saturday night into next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1005 PM Tuesday...

Updated to reflect a warmer night across the lower terrain,
especially early on. Otherwise, the forcast is on track in a
brief lull between systems.

As of 820 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms should gradually dissipate after
sunset, with the help of a mid-upper level short wave trough
exiting. The forecast remains on track, with an even more stout
mid-upper level short wave trough, along with a surface low
pressure center, bringing at least scattered showers, and even
a few thunderstorms, into the middle Ohio Valley before dawn
Wednesday.

As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Series of shortwaves to affect the area. One this afternoon,
combined with peak heating, will generate showers and storms, mainly
across the north. This will be followed by another series of waves,
one Wednesday morning, followed by another later in the day.
Overall, convection should be scattered in nature, and severe
weather is not anticipated, with storms today not likely to get very
tall due to a mid level cap in place.

As with previous forecast thinking, fog tonight should be rather
limited, but can`t be completely ruled out, particularly in areas
that receive rain today. But overall thinking is any fog that forms
should not be particularly dense in nature with incoming wave.
Cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover and shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through
Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night.
Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5
degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry
airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across
the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better
protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal
weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the
Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to
warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven
convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what
the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night
into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR is currently present, though valley fog and low
stratus have developed primarily across the eastern half of the
area. This fog/stratus may bring some IFR/LIFR restrictions
early this morning.

A line of showers and storms approaching from the west will
continue into the area this morning, then showers and storms are
expected to become more widespread for the afternoon as a
disturbance slowly moves overhead. Periodic MVFR ceilings and
MVFR/IFR visibilities may occur within any heavier showers or
storms today. Precipitation is expected to taper off after 00Z
as the disturbance departs, though MVFR or worse conditions will
again be possible in fog and low stratus anticipated to form
late in the period.

Light winds may pick up as storms move through this morning.
Flow becomes westerly during the day, with 15-20kt gusts
possible through the afternoon. Winds lessen overnight and take
on a northwesterly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of fog/stratus may
vary from the TAFs. Timing of sub-VFR conditions in showers and
storms today may also vary. Fog may develop again late in the
TAF period.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 05/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in the mountains in fog and stratus Thursday
morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JLB