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625
FXUS61 KRNK 250710
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
310 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes and
northeast United States today through Monday, before pushing a cold
front through the Mid Atlantic region by early Tuesday. While there
will be daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, the highest
probability of precipitation will be Sunday night and Monday. The
front will lead in drier and cooler weather for the middle of next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

   - Typical summer thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

Patchy fog will continue to develop early this morning. Visibility
will occasionally be less than one mile in locations along rivers
and lakes, and in the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont where
there is less cloud cover impeding fog formation. Fog will dissipate
rapidly after sunrise.

Isolated thunderstorms in eastern Kentucky will move into western
Virginia this morning, as they weaken, then dissipate. The air mass
will heat up the rest of the morning, with CAPES topping out in the
1200-1500 J/kg range by the time thunderstorms begin to develop.
Convective-allowing models and Bufkit forecast soundings have storms
developing generally in the mountains, and more specifically along
the southern Blue Ridge in the noon to 1PM time range. There will be
an overall eastward movement of the isolated and multi-storm
clusters. Expect a majority of the thunderstorms to dissipate
quickly after 8PM. No particular forcing or enhancement to produce
severe wind or large hail today, but for any outdoor activities,
take one last look at the sky before launching the boat or striking
out on that trail. Be weather aware and follow lightning safety
rules. "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!"

Aside from far southwest Virginia, and the Mountain Empire into
northwest North Carolina which will have some remnant cloud cover as
the overnight thunderstorms dissipate, expecting plenty of sunshine
today. Will lean toward warmer guidance for maximum temperatures
today. Little change planned to overnight lows.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled conditions leading to showers and thunderstorms
each day

A deepening trough over the plains and Midwest will guide a
front into the area on Monday. Ahead of this, an induced
shortwave ridge will create the quietest period of weather this
weekend on Saturday night and Sunday morning. As the front makes
its initial approach, Sunday afternoon will see the return of
diurnal showers and storms with the help of moisture advection
due to strengthening southerly flow. Chances of showers and
storms will continue to increase through the overnight period
Sunday into Monday. The front will be relatively strong when it
makes is passage on Monday. In addition, ensemble guidance has
the greatest chance of high instability in our CWA on Monday
afternoon. This has the potential to be a setup for severe
weather, but confidence is low on expected impacts. As we get
closer, high-res and convective allowing models will be
monitored closely.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s each afternoon,
which is a bit above normal for late May.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Largely quiet forecast with cooling temperatures

After Monday`s frontal passage, we will be positioned on the
western side of a mid-level trough, and the eastern side of a
surface high. Both of these features will induce northerly or
northwesterly flow at almost all levels of the atmosphere. This
could result in some wrap around orographic showers in the
mountains Tuesday, but after the surface high comes closer,
chances of precipitation drop to almost nil through the end of
the week. Temperatures will cool to around or just under normal
with the help of the aforementioned northerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...

MVFR fog will continue to develop early this morning.
Visibility will occasionally be IFR to LIFR in locations along
rivers and lakes, and in the Virginia and North Carolina
piedmont where there is less cloud cover impeding fog formation,
including at KLWB, KLYH, and KDAN. Fog will dissipate rapidly
after sunrise. Less confidence about the visibility as KBCB.

Isolated thunderstorms in eastern Kentucky will move into western
Virginia this morning, as they weaken, then dissipate, staying
south of KBLF and west of KBCB.

The air mass will heat up the rest of the morning, with CAPES
topping out in the 1200-1500 J/kg range by the time
thunderstorms begin to develop. Convective- allowing models and
Bufkit forecast soundings have storms developing generally in
the mountains, and more specifically along the southern Blue
Ridge in the noon/16Z to 1PM/17Z time range. There will be an
overall eastward movement of the isolated and multi-storm
clusters. Expect a majority of the thunderstorms to dissipate
quickly after 8PM/00Z.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons
and evenings, will continue through Monday. MVFR conditions
remain likely with any thunderstorms. The highest probability of
precipitation and associated MVFR conditions will be Sunday
night and Monday.

A front will cross through the area sometime Tuesday, turning
winds to the northwest and eventually bringing drier air to much
of the area. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across WV Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise VFR.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG