-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
164
FXUS61 KRNK 170051
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
851 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system will cross the area Friday through late
Sunday. This system will bring widespread rain to the area.
Monday and Tuesday look drier. High temperatures generally look
to be in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, with a slight
warming trend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated showers will dissipate by midnight

2) Rain returns Friday

HRRR and other Hi-Res guidance have the remaining showers over
the region dissipating by midnight. Bufkit forecast soundings
show fog developing in the typical river valley late this
evening.

Mid and high clouds spread into the area from the southwest
overnight. No changes made to forecast minimum temperatures.


Previous discussion:
As of 135 PM EDT...

Upper low is currently spinning just off the New Jersey coast
this afternoon. Flow is generally from the northwest with a weak
stalled boundary across West Virginia. Widespread cumulus clouds
continue, but have had enough breaks in the cloud cover to warm
up nicely already. As we continue to heat, may have a few
isolated showers or a thunderstorm or two develop across the
area this afternoon. Any rain or thunderstorm activity wanes by
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Clearing skies tonight will calm winds and residual low level
moisture will likely lead to areas of dense fog throughout the
area.

An open wave over the Plains today will move east, situated over
the Tennessee Valley by Friday morning. Flow will return to
southwest and a weak boundary draped across the region will be
the focus for a renewed chance of rain and thunderstorm activity
by Friday afternoon. Localized heavier downpours could lead to
some minor flooding issues.

With breaks in the clouds today, this will be the warmest day
with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Tomorrow, clouds and rain will hamper daytime heating a bit so
highs tomorrow mostly in the 70s. Overnight lows remain mild in
the 50s to low 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for more unsettled weather with chances of
showers and thunderstorms throughout this weekend.

2) There is a marginal risk of flooding due to the potential for
repeated rounds of rainfall.

A cold front will enter the Mid Atlantic on Friday night to bring
high chances of showers and thunderstorms. The storms should weaken
by early Saturday morning as the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Ample moisture should be available due to a southeast flow advecting
air from the Atlantic Ocean. Some thunderstorms may develop again by
Saturday afternoon due to increasing instability aloft as an upper
level low approaches. This upper level low should pass overhead by
Saturday night into Sunday to continue the unsettled weather, but
the thunder threat will dip lower as the flow turns to the northeast
and advect cooler air towards the Appalachian Mountains.

With this prolonged period of wet conditions from repeated rounds of
rainfall, there is a marginal risk of flooding for poor drainage or
low-lying areas. Some locations could see one to two inches with
locally higher amounts over the weekend, but it will be the heavier
rainfall rates from storms that pose the main concern for any
hydrological issues. The risk of severe weather also appears to be
low, but there may be some stronger storms possible if enough
instability is available. Temperatures were kept to the cooler side
of model guidance due to the abundant cloud cover and ongoing
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier conditions to return during
Monday and Tuesday.

2) The next chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive
by Wednesday from a cold front.

The upper level low should slowly drift off the North Carolina coast
by Monday, and the models are starting to indicate better agreement
for drier weather. Meanwhile, ridging will take place across the
Appalachian Mountains. With high pressure taking firmer control by
Tuesday to provide more sunshine, a warming trend should ensue. Even
warmer air will arrive by Wednesday from southwest flow ahead of the
next cold front. However, most of the dynamical energy with this
front should pass well to the north in Canada, so just a chance of
showers and thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure could follow by Thursday to
offer lower chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Thursday...

Starting the forecast period with scattered VFR clouds and
isolated showers. The showers may have brief periods of MVFr
visibility due to heavy rain but the coverage is limited and the
probability of impacting any of the local airports is low. These
showers will dissipate by 03Z/1PM.

Bufkit forecast soundings and models have a layer of IFR to LIFR
low clouds spreading east from the coast and reaching central
Virginia late tonight. Bring these low clouds into KLYH after
06Z/2AM.

Wind speeds will diminish this evening and with a mostly clear
sky IFR/LIFR fog will develop in river valleys. Bufkit suggested
the fog will form at KLWB/KBCB and KBLF as early as 05Z/1AM. Will
see improvements by 12z-13z/8-9AM with the visibility returning
to VFR.

Mid and high clouds will fill in from the southwest throughout
the day. Models and Bufkit showed enough heating by 22Z/6PM in
far southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina to overcome
a mid level cap. Have added -ra to the end of KBLF and KBCB
TAFs.

Average confidence for formation of fog and the associated
visibilities tonight.
Average confidence for timing of precipitation on Friday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub VFR likely with rain and low clouds on Friday night.
Precipitation will continue through the weekend with numerous
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.
MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area for Sunday and
Sunday night.

Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system
begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG