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867
FXUS66 KSEW 050352
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
852 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.UPDATE...
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Shower activity will continue to taper off tonight as
the atmospheric river pattern taps out. High pressure at the
surface will continue to build inland overnight and throughout the
day Wednesday, allowing for conditions to dry out and warm up.
While low stratus is likely to develop across much of the area
early Wednesday morning, temperatures are on track to return to
near normal. A strong ridge will continue to build over much of
the US through the remainder of the week, and while temperatures
for much of the south will near record territory, conditions
across western Washington are favored to stay well below records
for now. No updates to the forecast.
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&&

.SYNOPSIS...
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Precipitation and breezy conditions will continue to
diminish through tonight. A pattern change will result in high
pressure building over the region through late this week, allowing
temperatures to rise to above normal levels. The warmest
temperatures will likely occur Friday and Saturday across western
Washington before falling back towards normal by early next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Synoptic ridging will
develop across the PNW tonight through the rest of the week and
is likely to peak in amplitude Friday. This will result in a
fairly rapid warm up through the end of the workweek with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. HeatRisk levels
will peak Friday, with widespread minor/yellow HeatRisk and
isolated moderate/orange HeatRisk - mainly in favored areas such
as the Cascade Foothills and urban heat island areas such as the
Auburn/Kent valley.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Warm temperatures will
continue into Saturday with highs away from the coast near to
slightly above levels seen Friday (the coast will be several
degrees cooler). However, with cooling expected Saturday night,
24-hour HeatRisk will fall back solidly into the yellow/minor
category. This cooling will arrive as the ridge axis moves east of
the area allowing onshore flow to increase across western WA.

Sunday through early next week ensembles favor a trough over the
eastern Pacific with occasional shortwaves ejecting across the
PNW. This will likely keep temperatures near to slightly above
normal as well as occasional cloud cover and chances for mainly
mountain showers.
-Wolcott-
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Strong westerly flow aloft with ridging building
northward across the West. A few scattered showers have reformed
closer to PAE and CLM, though rain has otherwise shifted out of the
region. Mostly VFR with MVFR possible tonight through 18Z Wednesday,
though greatest chances at PWT and PAE (35% chance). Winds continue
to gust to 20 kt at times out of the south-southwest, and will
decrease overnight and become westerly (will become northwesterly
late Wednesday afternoon).

KSEA...Mostly VFR scattered mid-level CIGs. Gusty southwesterly
winds still around 20 kt but will diminish to around 5 to 10 kt by
08Z, becoming westerly and eventually northwesterly by 20Z Wednesday.

Davis
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories continue over the coastal
waters and through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Onshore flow
continues with seas 9 to 15 ft - steepest waves in the outer coast)
through Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise light winds out of the
northwest for the remainder of the week, and seas will return to 4
to 6 ft Thursday through Saturday, building to 6 to 8 ft Sunday with
another system.

Davis/HPR
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&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor
     Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
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&&

$$