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688
FXUS65 KTFX 252109
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
309 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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High pressure will maintain dry conditions through tonight before
an approaching Pacific weather weather system brings scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday followed by
general unsettled weather on Friday. Temperatures warm above
average on Wednesday and then trend cooler during the second half
of the week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Upper level ridging remains in place through tonight, yielding
generally dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. The latest
satellite imagery does show some scattered clouds, most notably
over far Southwest MT and Hill and Blaine counties farther north.
Surface CAPE values have risen to around 100 to 200 J/kg and an
isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, particularly
for the higher terrain along the MT/ID/WY border. Any convective
activity will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Aside from some patchy fog development along the Milk River Valley
heading toward Wednesday morning, a relatively night is expected.

Diffluent southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough on Wednesday, resulting in increased
mid- and higher level cloudiness during the morning and scattered
shower and thunderstorm development by the afternoon. Hi-res
models have increased ML CAPE level up to around 400 - 800 J/kg
for Wednesday afternoon for locations south of a Helena to White
Sulphur Springs line. This combined with inverted V forecast
soundings and bulk shear around 30 top 40 kts creates an
environment for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail in addition to lightning. At least isolated convective
activity looks to persist into the overnight hours Wednesday
night, through the next viable chance for stronger thunderstorms
will come on Thursday over the eastern portions of the CWA. These
areas will be on the western fringe of higher end instability and
shear for at least a marginal threat of severe wind gusts, hail,
and heavy downpours. Showery precipitation continues Thursday
night into Friday, mostly for northern areas. There will also be
sufficient cold air for a dusting of light, high mountain snow.

Much cooler and windy conditions area expected on the back side
of the Pacific low later Thursday into Friday. Winds initially
increase along the Rocky Mountain Front Thursday night before
spreading eastward onto the plains by Friday. Probabilistic
guidance generally keeps wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range, but
locations along the Rocky Mountain Front on the immediate lee
side of the central ranges may see gusts over 55 mph. Shower
activity will need to be monitored for being a catalyst of
transferring higher wind guts to the surface. While no high wind
products are planned at this time, the situation will continue to
be monitored. Transient ridging aloft brings drier conditions for
the first half of the weekend before unsettled weather return
Sunday into early next week. - RCG
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&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of this TAF period.
Ridging aloft will remain in place through tonight before mid- and
upper level clouds increase from the southwest Wednesday morning in
advance of an approaching Pacific trough. This will be followed by
scattered shower and thunderstorm development by the early afternoon
hours, particularly for Southwest MT. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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GTF  49  87  57  72 /   0  10  40  80
CTB  46  81  54  68 /   0  10  30  50
HLN  55  88  61  73 /   0  30  50  70
BZN  51  84  56  77 /   0  30  30  70
WYS  45  77  48  71 /  20  30  30  40
DLN  50  82  53  75 /   0  30  20  40
HVR  50  84  58  72 /   0   0  40  80
LWT  48  82  55  72 /   0   0  40  90
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&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls