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682
FXUS65 KABQ 302127
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Strong to severe storms are possible in eastern NM today and again
Friday and Saturday afternoons. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main threats each day, although an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. Breezy east winds are possible in eastern
Albuquerque both tonight and Friday night, but confidence in gusty
winds is relatively low. Drier air takes over Sunday, pushing
moisture to the east and helping dry weather prevail areawide Sunday
through the middle of next week. Temperatures will also soar to the
highest values of the season thus far early to mid-next week when
highs will push 105 degrees in Roswell.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Updrafts have begun to develop within the past couple hours along
the dryline in far eastern NM. Hail will be the main severe threat
over the next few hours as these storms intensify in the moderately
sheared environment. There are several boundaries around the area so
collisions could help storms congeal into a line by the time they
exit into TX around 6PM this evening. There`s a chance that another
storm grazes the northeast corner of the state late this evening,
but it would likely be elevated given the surface stabilization in
the wake of this afternoon`s round of storms. The aformentioned
cluster of storms over the TX Panhandle will send an outflow
boundary south and west overnight, with gusts up to 30kts possible
in its wake. It should eventually push through the gaps of the
central mtn chain around midnight. Models have been slow to catch
onto the east wind, but expecting gusts to around 25kts through
Tijeras canyon.

Friday`s storms will once again favor the northeast where SPC has
already introduced a slight risk for severe storms. Gusty showers
and storms are possible throughout central NM and along the central
mountain chain at the western edge of the dryline, especially if the
boundary pushes further west tonight than currently modeled thanks a
deep cold pool. The HREF is already showing a greater than 50%
chance of 40kts of bulk speed shear across eastern NM, supporting
strong updraft development with storms that do develop. Storms will
likely cluster together, transitioning the threat over to damaging
wind gusts later in the afternoon closer to the TX border. High LCLs
should limit the tornado potential, but a brief spin-up cannot be
ruled out. Another westward moisture surge is expected Friday night
after the evening round of storms.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

With the westward moisture surge Friday night, convective activity
is expected to develop further west than previous days. A westerly
shortwave moving over central NM will also help storms develop
slightly further south than previous days. Storms will quickly race
off to the east during the afternoon and exit into TX during the
evening. A much drier airmass will enter from the west Sunday and
remain over the state early in the week thanks to troughing over the
northern Rockies. Mid and upper level winds will come up a bit,
particularly in the northern mountains and adjacent highlands with
deep afternoon mixing. Mostly sunny skies and the very unstable
boundary layer will help to temps rise to several degrees above
seasonal averages areawide.

Confidence is high that a ridge will continue to amplify over the
Great Basin mid-week, keeping dry northwesterly flow over New
Mexico. During this time frame, temperatures will soar to the
highest values of the season thus far with Roswell approaching 105F
and Santa Fe in the low 90s. This will begin to create some high
heat risk across Chaves county, but clear dry nights should at least
help temps cool off into the mid 60s overnight. There is still a
50/50 split in the models on whether the ridge will continue to
amplify over the Pacific Northwest or further east over the spine of
the Rockies. The former scenario would increase the chances of
backdoor cold front surges with any troughs descending into the high
plains, but the latter may actually favor greater precipitation
chances with moisture sneaking up underneath the ridge. Either way,
it looks to be hot with highs 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Convection will focus across the northeastern quarter of the state
from 18Z through 03Z, with the potential for storms to linger near
the TX border through 06Z. Storms across the far northeast may
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, including at KCAO and
KTCC. Storms will cluster together over the TX Panhandle, sending
an outflow boundary south and west. Gusty north to east winds up
to 35kts are possible with this boundary and it may create gusty
winds at KABQ between 07Z and 15Z. Gusts to 35kts appear unlikely
at KABQ, but an AWW may be needed if nocturnal convection across
the east is more robust than currently forecast.

Easterly upslope flow may generate MVFR to IFR cigs across along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and in the eastern
plains, with the highest confidence from central highlands
southward to the Capitan mountains. Low clouds may linger through
the late morning across eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Strong to severe storms are possible each afternoon and evening
through Saturday, with the best chances in the far eastern plains
near the TX border. Gusty showers and storms are possible along the
western edge of the dryline, generally close to the central mountain
chain Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Drier air
enters from the west late on Saturday and sticks around through at
least mid-next week, allowing dry and hot conditions to prevail.
Afternoon minimum humidity will be in the single digits in most
areas each afternoon and deep afternoon mixing will bring some
gustier winds down to the surface, particularly in the northeast.
Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are likely during this
timeframe with near critical conditions in the east Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to continue to
dominate the western US around the middle of the week, although
there is some uncertainty with regard to its exact location. If the
ridge develops over the Rockies or even slightly east, then some
moisture may be able to sneak underneath the ridge, resulting in
higher humidities and and increased shower and storm chances.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Farmington......................  49  88  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  83  42  85 /   5   0   0  10
Cuba............................  46  83  50  84 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  40  86  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  42  86  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  84  48  86 /   0   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  85  55  86 /   0   5   0   5
Datil...........................  49  82  52  84 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  90  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  56  93  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  76  44  78 /   5   5   0  20
Los Alamos......................  55  80  55  81 /   0  10   5  20
Pecos...........................  48  82  52  82 /   0  20  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  44  75  48  77 /  10  20  10  30
Red River.......................  38  70  41  71 /  10  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  33  74  39  74 /   0  30  20  30
Taos............................  41  82  45  82 /   0  10  10  20
Mora............................  44  77  46  77 /   5  30  20  40
Espanola........................  50  88  52  89 /   0  10   5  20
Santa Fe........................  53  82  54  83 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  50  86  53  87 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  89  59  89 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  90  58  91 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  91  59  92 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  52  92  54  93 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  56  91  57  92 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  52  92  54  93 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  54  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  52  92  55  93 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  58  87  58  88 /   0   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  57  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  58  95  59  97 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  81  53  82 /   0   0   5  10
Tijeras.........................  53  85  53  86 /   0   0   5  10
Edgewood........................  51  86  50  86 /   0   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  87  48  88 /   0  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  48  80  51  81 /   0  20  10  20
Mountainair.....................  50  85  50  86 /   0   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  48  86  51  87 /   0  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  56  91  58  90 /   0   5   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  52  83  54  83 /   0  10   5  20
Capulin.........................  46  74  48  77 /  30  70  30  50
Raton...........................  46  81  48  80 /  20  60  20  40
Springer........................  48  81  49  81 /   5  50  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  47  78  49  77 /   5  40  20  30
Clayton.........................  53  80  54  83 /  30  40  40  40
Roy.............................  51  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  57  86  58  89 /  20  40  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  55  85  57  86 /   5  30  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  56  85  58  88 /  20  30  40  20
Clovis..........................  58  85  61  88 /  20  20  30  20
Portales........................  58  87  60  91 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  57  89  59  91 /  10  20  30  20
Roswell.........................  62  93  65  94 /   0   5  10  20
Picacho.........................  56  87  55  88 /   0  10   5  20
Elk.............................  53  87  54  87 /   0   5   5  20
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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16