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302
FXUS61 KAKQ 031959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes
through Thursday night into Friday bringing drier conditions for
late in the week into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding
across central and southeast Virginia this afternoon into this
evening.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low offshore of the
SC coast with a secondary shortwave trough dropping in from the
NW. The surface pattern is rather nebulous but generally
characterized weak high pressure offshore and a trough in
vicinity of the Piedmont. Scattered showers/tstms have developed
in advance of the trough in a warm, moist, and unstable
airmass. Temperatures this afternoon are primarily in the lower
to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70F. PW
values are generally 1.4-1.6". Any showers/tstms will be slow
moving with weak flow aloft and localized heavy rain is
expected. WPC has maintained a targeted marginal risk area for
excessive rainfall along the I-64 corridor from the RIC metro to
the Tidewater. Coverage of showers/tstms should gradually
diminish in coverage later this evening into the early overnight
hours. Lows tonight will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s,
with lower 60s over the NW Piedmont. Patchy fog is possible
across the northern tier of the CWA from the NW Piedmont to the
Lower MD Eastern Shore.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
  with locally heavy rainfall possible.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tuesday, which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold
front to push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible
mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E
behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. The 12z/03 HREF depicts
the best coverage across s-central VA and interior NE NC, and
then into the Piedmont, with some sea-breeze activity over the
interior MD Eastern Shore. A chance of showers and a few tstms
(20-30% PoPs) continues across SW/W portions of the FA Tuesday
night as some instability linger overnight. Upper ridging
briefly builds over the area Tuesday night-early Wednesday
before moving just to our E by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, a
rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at
the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross
the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night, providing enough
forcing for scattered tstms to form during the afternoon and
evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers and tstms move E
Wednesday night. A few tstms may be strong with strong winds the
main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W 2/3rds of the FA under
a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and
Wednesday given slow storm motions. As such, localized ponding
on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the mid-upper
80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue night and
upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night. A chc of aftn/early evening
showers/tstms lingers into Thursday with the highest PoPs
shifting toward the coast. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid
to upper 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry, outside of a isolated afternoon showers.

- Temperatures trend slightly below normal for the weekend, but
remaining pleasant.

Sfc cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday.
A few lingering showers or storms are possible Thursday night,
esepcially across southeastern portions of the area. Aloft,
upper low will drop SE from the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes Friday into Saturday, with a larger trough situating over
most of the eastern CONUS. While the area looks generally dry,
there could be isolated showers and storms, especially in the
afternoon Fri and Sat, with various shortwaves rotating just N
of the area. Temperatures Friday will still be on the warm side,
in the lower 80s W to the mid-upper 80s E. Dew points drop off
into the 50s for Saturday, bringing generally pleasant
conditions (outside of a brief shower, as mentioned above). Dew
points recover some later Sunday and expect isolated to
scattered showers/storms areawide (20-30% PoP) with afternoon
high temps in the low-mid 80s. Similar wx for next Monday.
Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s through the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

A weak trough is centered over the region as of 18z. Primarily
VFR with SCT-BKN CU with bases of 3.5-5.0kft, with patchy MVFR
cigs ~3.0kft. Scattered showers are developing in vicinity of
the trough. Scattered showers and a few tstms are expected to
increase in coverage this aftn and early evening, primarily
from central VA through SE VA and NE NC. Mainly VFR with brief
IFR/MVFR vsby possible with a direct impact at any given
terminal. Showers/tstms dissipate later this evening and
overnight. Some fog is possible later tonight/early Tuesday
morning, with IFR/MVFR vsby possible, mainly at RIC, SBY, and
PHF. Isolated showers/tstms are expected Tuesday aftn/early
evening with the best chc at RIC and ECG. The wind this aftn
will be SW 5-10kt, but locally stronger and variable in and near
showers/tstms. The wind will become calm to very light tonight,
and then E to NE 5-10kt Tuesday.

Additional aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Wednesday and
Thursday. Gradually improving conditions are expected Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday
 though south winds increase late in the day.

-Small Craft Advisory Conditions are possible on the Bay
 Thursday due to south winds ahead of a cold front.

-Daily chances for storms over the waters.

Southwest have persisted this afternoon and decreased to
generally 5 to 10 kt as expected. Generally light southwest
winds are expected through the overnight. Moisture has returned
to the area, so expect a chance for storms this afternoon. Some
storms will be capable of producing localized higher winds and
waves (this will be handled with SMWs if necessary). This chance
of showers and storms will persist each day into at least late
this week.

A weak backdoor cold front pushes south from the Delmarva
stalling somewhere near the Middle Bay and Chincoteague. This
will result in a wind shift over the MD waters to the NE and E
Tuesday morning with winds becoming more SE and E over much of
the Bay and coastal waters. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt, but
will remain below SCA criteria. The front lifts north Wednesday
with winds becoming more SE and S, however winds do increase
becoming more gusty Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of
the next cold front. The front will not push across the area
Friday morning with winds become NW through the day. The better
surge with stronger NW winds will may not arrive until Late
Friday into Friday night and early Saturday.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches
Tuesday. The risk may increase to moderate Wednesday and
Thursday especially from Assateague north to Ocean City with
nearshore waves increasing to 3ft and an increasing southeast
flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday. Most tidal sites will likely be impacted by
very shallow flooding near the waterfront. Locations in the
northern Bay, such as Bishops Head, may bump into minor flood
stage as south winds increase late Wednesday and Thursday. The
following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
may bring similar impacts as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ