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781
FXUS61 KALY 061026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
626 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely, especially during the afternoon and evening. Things
continue to trend cooler and unsettled for Friday through the
weekend, with a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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One area of scattered showers will affect our region until
mid morning. Another band of showers in western NY/PA will
increase in coverage through the day as some instability and low
level forcing along a surface to boundary layer wind shift and
leading edge of weak cold advection track into our area.
Instability will be marginal as will shear but the low level
forcing should again, support an organized band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible in the thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms today with potential isolated damaging wind
gusts.

Highs today, with the mostly cloudy to cloudy sky, will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lower to mid 70s higher
elevations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper cut off low slowly approaches tonight through Saturday
night and there are disagreements in the timing and track of
trailing upper energy merging with the upper cut off low, which
would determine where the southern edge of the upper cold pool
and associated surface based instability would enhance coverage
of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

In general, showers and thunderstorms diminish during the
evenings to just isolated coverage of showers each night through
daybreak tonight, Friday night and Saturday night. Breaks in
the clouds each night as well.

Upper dynamics and gradual cold advection Friday and Saturday
with clouds and showers becoming more widespread from late
morning through the afternoons Friday and Saturday. The best
upper dynamics and instability associated with the upper cold
pool should be in areas north of I-90, where the best coverage
of showers and storms should be. Still, solid chances for
showers and isolated storms south of I-90.

So, with some peeks of sun potentially each morning before
convective clouds form, producing a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky,
temperatures will reach the 70s to near 80 Friday and around 70
to mid 70s Saturday, with some 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We remain under the influence of the upper-low through the beginning
of the work week before high pressure builds in from the west
and forces the return to dry, warm weather...

By the start of the long term forecast period, the upper-low will be
located overhead, sprawled across the Ontario/Quebec border. Broad
cyclonic flow will help to maintain a relatively moist airmass,
leading to persistent clouds and additional rounds of showers and
possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Sunday and Monday as a
weak wind shift boundary pushes through the region. Shower and
thunderstorm activity looks to be relatively scattered in nature and
will likely remain primarily diurnally driven with daytime heating
will aid in increased instability.

By Monday night, the upper-low looks to finally make its exit from
our overhead as it continues to weaken and push further north and
east. Guidance shows there could be an additional round of showers
and possible embedded rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon as upper
troughing looks to break away from the main low pressure core and
linger across the Northeast but these would once again be relatively
scattered and light in nature. The upper trough then looks to be
forced eastward as upper-level heights increase in response to a
mid/upper-level ridge building in across the region from the
west. With surface high pressure advancing in tandem with the
upper ridge, dry conditions will be returned to eastern New York
and western New England for Tuesday night through at least
Wednesday before a shortwave disturbance threatens to disturb
the tranquility for Thursday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range primarily from the
mid/upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of upper 50s to low 60s above
1500 ft and upper 70s in the Hudson Valley. Tuesday begins the
warming trend with temperatures increasing to the upper 60s to upper
70s before we rise back into the low 70s to low and possibly mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures throughout the period will
generally range from the upper 40s to low/mid 50s through Tuesday
night with Wednesday increasing to the low to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...VFR conditions prevail at KALB and KGFL
this morning with MVFR conditions at KPOU and periodic
fluctuations between VFR and MVFR at KPSF. Unfavored flight
conditions come in the form of lowered ceilings as clouds
continue to stream into the region ahead of an approaching
upper-level disturbance. Ceilings will gradually lower at KALB
and KGFL throughout the morning, dropping into MVFR heights
within the next few hours.

KENX radar show showers propagating generally from west to east,
swiftly encroaching upon the region. The terminal to be
impacted first will be KPOU with showers just south of its
vicinity. Showers will then gradually overspread the region over
the next few hours with visibilities possibly dropping to the
MVFR thresholds as well. Breaks in shower activity then comes
later this morning into the early afternoon before thunderstorm
chances increase later in the day. Brief returns to VFR ceilings
are possible before convection this afternoon as hinted at in
the guidance, but with elevated low-level moisture, generally
maintained MVFR conditions throughout the day. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing heavier rainfall rates that could
result in additional worsening of visibility back to MVFR and
possibly IFR thresholds as well. Upon sunset this evening,
thunderstorms will gradually taper off courtesy of the loss of
daytime heating, but ceilings could remain at the MVFR level for
the remainder of the period.

Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will generally be light out
of the southeast with sustained speeds ranging from 3-6 kt. Some
stronger gusts are possible as a result of thunderstorms this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday. Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected with
localized amounts up to 2 inches. Some thunderstorms will
contain heavy rain and could produce localized ponding of water
on roadways, urban and small stream flooding and standing water
in low lying areas.

No flooding of main stem rivers is expected. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will occur Friday through the weekend but
less widespread and lighter, with additional amounts of perhaps
up to a half inch of rain through the weekend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...NAS