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358
FXUS61 KBGM 170745
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will begin to creep into the area on
Monday, with the worst conditions arriving Tuesday and
persisting with little relief through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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340 AM Update...

An upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over the region,
and temperatures will begin to ramp up Monday, with high
temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will
continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with
heat indices of 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory will be in effect
Noon Tuesday for portions of Central NY and NE PA, and will last
through Thursday evening. With overnight temperatures not
dipping much past 70 degrees, there won`t be much relief from
the hot and humid conditions.

One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for
thunderstorms from perturbations riding on top of the ridge.
Chances for afternoon into late evening thunderstorms Tuesday
will be dependent on how strong the ridge is, and if it
positions itself in a way where these perturbations advect into
our area. Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions
that depict thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon
into the evening, so there is a possibility for storms for
Central NY, mainly west of I-81. We`ll keep monitoring near-term
guidance for changes in solutions and chances for storm
initiation Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update...

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer Tuesday, kicking off an
extended period of temperatures around and exceeding 90F for
afternoon highs throughout the short term forecast period. This will
be driven by a strong high pressure just off the coast with 500mb
heights near 600dm and T850 around 20C. Model soundings are fairly
dry, especially within the boundary layer, and the ground continues
to dry out. As a result, forecasted dew points are lower than
previous updates. Even with this reduction, dew points will still in
the 60s and even low 70s.

A Heat Advisory was issued through Thursday for all CNY counties
except Sullivan and Delaware Counties as confidence is too low that
conditions will be met in the Catskills at this time. While some
valley locations may get close to excessive heat criteria (105),
confidence was not high enough to go with watches/warnings at this
time. For PA, advisory criteria is higher (100F), so confidence was
only high enough for the Wyoming Valley and Northern Tier. Wayne and
Pike Counties were left out as conditions do not look like they will
be met. The advisory for PA was only issued for Tuesday and could be
extended at a later time.

Flow around the high will work to advect in low-level moisture.
Instability will peak at around 1500 to 2000 J/kg during the daytime
hours, though shear looks to be weak. With this amount of
instability, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible if enough low-level moisture is available.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 PM Update...

The second half of the weekend remains somewhat uncertain as
originally it looked like there was relatively good agreement that
some relief would occur. Now there is a bit more divergence with
model guidance. Thursday will make a run at the hottest day of the
week as the hot and humid airmass stays overhead and high pressure
is slower to move further off the coast. 500mb heights do begin to
fall late in the work week and into the weekend which will lead to a
slow cooling trend through the weekend. While 80s will be slowly
sprinkled in throughout the region, some locations may see highs in
the 90s all the way through Saturday. This is one area where models
diverge as some keep a broader ridge over the region where as others
have a broad trough for the weekend. A ridge would keep heat around
whereas a trough would bring much needed relief.

Given uncertainty for this period, NBM PoPs were favored, which have
trended drier for Thursday and even Friday. As a frontal system
begins to approach the region from the north, isolated thunderstorms
may be possible Friday. Guidance pushes the front through early into
weekend. This system would bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region and potentially much needed relief.
Chances for showers look potentially better during the later half of
the weekend as the next system sweeps across the Midwest and
approaches the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals.
30-35 knots of Low level wind shear for SYR and RME will
continue through 10Z with the low level jet.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ016-
     017.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...KL