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523
FXUS62 KCAE 192337
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
737 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along with dry weather and near normal
temperatures are expected through Thursday. Unsettled
conditions are possible by late in the week into the weekend as
moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Well above normal
temperatures are expected by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper level ridge remains centered over much of the eastern US
with drier air aloft. At lower levels, an onshore flow will
continue through the night. Skies tonight should be partly
cloudy, with some high clouds moving in from the northwest,
while in lower levels few to scattered clouds will remain
possible with the onshore flow. Winds remaining 5 to 10 mph
overnight. Lows tonight in the mid 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains in place at the surface and aloft
Thursday as the pattern will be similar to Wednesday. Weaker
onshore flow will lead to less moisture, especially in the low
levels so while scattered cumulus may develop, showers are not
expected as PWATs will struggle to exceed an inch. High
temperatures expected to be near today`s highs. A weaker low
level jet Thursday night along with drier conditions should lead
to overnight lows being a degree or two cooler, in the mid 60s.

Gradual warming expected into Friday as the upper ridge retrogrades
and will be centered over the TN Valley. Temperatures at 850mb rise
to near or slightly above normal, leading to highs in the low to mid-
90s across the forecast area. A surface trough located offshore will
begin to move towards the area around the flow of the upper ridge.
This will lead to increasing moisture flowing into the forecast
area, although models remain consistent in keeping the deepest
moisture to the south. PWATs increase sufficiently to support at
least a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms south of I-20.
This increased moisture will also lead to warmer overnight lows, in
the upper 60s to around 70.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warming is expected to continue into this weekend as upper ridging
continues to hang on over the Southeast. NAEFS indicates that by
Sunday and Monday, 850mb temperatures will exceed the 90th
percentile. Little change in the overall high temperature forecast
in blended guidance or the spread through at least Monday with high
confidence (greater than 70%) in high temperatures exceeding 95F
each day. With sufficient low level moisture (dew points around
70F), confidence continues to increase in max heat indices reaching
or exceeding 100F Saturday through Monday. Also worth noting that
blended guidance continues to favor warm overnight lows, remaining
in the low to mid 70s. There remains uncertainty beyond Monday as
guidance continues to show the ridge beginning to break down as an
upper trough approaches the region and blended guidance begins to
show greater spread in temperatures. That being said, no major
cool down is expected anytime soon. GEFS probabilities indicate
increasing probability of PWATs increasing to above 2 inches by
Sunday into early next week which will lead to increasing chances
for diurnally driven thunderstorms. With the potential for greater
dynamics with an approaching upper trough, highest chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be Monday and Tuesday.

More information on the potential for moderate to major heat risk
late in the forecast period can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR expected through the TAF period.

The cumulus field continues to dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating. Expect clear skies to overtake the area shortly
after 00z and continue through about 15z before fair weather
cumulus develop once again. Easterly winds from 5-10 kts
diminish some overnight and shift to northeasterly. Expect winds
to become more easterly and gust to 15 to 20 kts after 15z.
Fog development is not anticipated overnight as winds are not
expected to become calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions possible in
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday
through Sunday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$