-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
893
FXUS62 KCAE 140022
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
822 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday. A weak
front moves in from the north Saturday, with a slight increase
in moisture. Mainly expect isolated afternoon convection to be
possible through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures are
expected throughout much of the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in place to our north. Clear skies and
overall dry conditions tonight, any fog should be limited to
near bodies of water. The clear skies will also allow
temperatures to be cooler than last night with forecast lows in
the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will still be mostly dry as high pressure will continue
across the area. Weak stationary surface front well south does
extend northward and off the SC/GA coast, with low pressure
developing along it through the day. This low remains well
offshore and will be tracking away from the region. Moisture
across the area will remain limited, and a continued subsidence
inversion should limit any kind of rain activity to areas much
closer to the coast. Temperatures do reach into the middle 90s,
and heat index values will be similar due to the dry air in
place. Friday night will see a weak cold front moving towards
the area from the north, but once again the airmass ahead of the
front will be too dry for any rainfall to develop across our
area. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.

For Saturday, the front moves in and through, but really wont
see much impact for temperatures. Exception may be across the
very northern Midlands and Pee Dee where highs in the lower 90s
will be possible. Meanwhile elsewhere, guidance still generally
giving mid to upper 90s, with heat index values around 100
degrees. Continue to strongly encourage those that will be
outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. The subsidence
inversion will be weakening on Saturday however with dry air
expected to remain in the mid levels with light northerly to
northwesterly winds lending a bit of downsloping any potential
for convection would be in the eastern Midlands, and very
isolated at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much of the longer term period will see a strong upper ridge
across the region. At the surface, the center of an area of high
pressure off to our north will slowly be moving eastward off the
New England coast. This will eventually turn low level winds
more off the Atlantic, bringing an increase in moisture. Even
with the slightly better moisture, only expecting isolated
afternoon convection through the period due to the strength and
position of the upper ridge. Temperatures through the long term
will remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index readings
slightly higher each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
VFR forecast.

High pressure across the area. Cumulus should dissipate soon
after 00z. Sky clear overnight with light and variable/near calm
winds. The NBM and HRRR guidance suggests VFR through the night.
There is a higher probability of stratus in the SC coastal Plain
overnight and expect the bulk of these clouds/or patchy fog to
remain to the southeast of OGB and AGS at this time. Scattered
cumulus will develop mid to late morning with cloud bases rising
to around 6000 Ft in the afternoon. Winds favor a north
direction less than 10 knots by 18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$