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458
FXUS62 KCHS 252255
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
655 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while a
weak cold front approaches the area. This front will likely
linger near the area through mid-week, followed by another
front towards the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight: Few to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across parts of the local area for the next few hours, within an
environment displaying SBCAPE around 4000-4500 J/kg, DCAPE around
1000-1200 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Shear remains
weak however, suggesting pulse type convection producing bouts of
gusty winds and localized heavy downpours early evening, before
quickly trending weaker with the loss of daytime heating around
sunset. Once convection dissipates after sunset, expect a mostly dry
night, although an isolated shower/thunderstorm could occur just
about anywhere at the coast where warm/moist conditions will linger.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s inland to around 80 at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Broad troughing aloft will be present over the East Coast of the
U.S. Wednesday and persist through the work week. Similarly, at
the surface a trough will be present along the southeast
coastline on Wednesday. The coastal trough will slowly dissipate
towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in at the
surface from the east. Temperatures at 850 hPa will remain
anomalously warm through the week, with hot and humid conditions
expected each day. Heat index values are forecast to reach
around 103-106F inland, with a few coastal locations possibly
reaching 108F. At this juncture no Heat Advisory is planned,
however conditions will be borderline through the end of the
week. Each afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, a typical summertime pattern with
pulse convection. PWATs will remain slightly elevated, around
1.6-1.7 inches with CAPE values forecast to reach around 1500
J/kg in the afternoon. Therefore, any thunderstorm could become
strong to marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts as the
main hazard.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A similar summertime pattern will prevail through the weekend
and into early next week as high pressure builds in aloft along
with coastal troughing at the surface. Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
with hot and humid conditions. Head index values will likely
peak around 103-105F inland with some locations along the
coastline reaching 108F. Head Advisories may be required.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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25/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Best convective parameters look to occur near
KCHS this afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough.
VCTS was highlighted there through 00Z. Otherwise, the best
tstm impacts look to remain west of KSAV and KJZI. VFR will
prevail for the remainder of the 18z TAF period. Some last
minute adjustments may be needed based on radar trends at
issuance time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible at all terminals with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: There are no concerns with a weak pressure gradient
across local waters overnight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 kt
early evening are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 kt overnight.
Seas will range between 2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday: Generally tranquil marine conditions
are expected through the period. Winds will gradually back each
day and veer overnight, strongest along the coastline as the
afternoon sea breeze/overnight land breeze develops. Seas should
average 2 to 3 ft.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...