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543
FXUS61 KCLE 091949
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight.
High pressure will begin to build east over the area on Monday and
persist through much of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through sunset with gusts as
high as 25-30 mph across the area. These winds will quickly weaken
to 5-10 mph late this evening and will be accompanied by low
temperatures dipping into the low to mid 50s tonight. In addition,
late this evening and into tonight, a weak secondary cold front will
move south across the area as another shortwave moves along the
upper level trough. With this boundary, there is a potential for
scattered, lake enhanced rain showers, especially across northwest
Pennsylvania. As this boundary moves south, 850mb temperature near
6C will push across Lake Erie, resulting in marginal lake induced
instability. In addition, models suggest the best potential for
surface convergence to occur along the eastern shores of Lake Erie.
Not expecting any thunder with these showers as overall forcing
remains weak. These showers should all dissipate Monday morning,
leaving the bulk of the day dry across the area. Unfortunately,
moisture will linger and a stratus deck will likely persist over
much of the CWA on Monday. The best chance of any sunshine will be
along the I75 corridor in the afternoon. Highs on Monday will be
unseasonably cool, only reaching into the upper 60s across western
counties and into the mid to upper 50s for eastern counties. By late
Monday, high pressure begins to build in and allows for conditions
to remain dry through Monday night. With continued clearing expected
Monday night, radiational cooling coupled with CAA will result in
temperatures falling into the 40s, with the exception of the
lakeshore which should linger in the low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Temperatures will be on the rebound Tuesday as high pressure builds
in, though still slightly below normal (by 4-7 degrees). The high
pressure center shifts southeast to the mid-Atlantic region by
Wednesday, though a ridge extends westward across much of the
southeast CONUS into the lower Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow
develops and advected warmer air to the region on Wednesday with
highs close to normal (ranging from highs in the mid 70s in
Northwest Pennsylvania to mid 80s in Northwest Ohio).
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Wednesday`s synoptic-scale pattern continues into Thursday with
southwest warm air advection bringing above normal temperatures to
the region with highs ranging from low 80s in Northwest Pennsylvania
to around 90 in Northwest Ohio. An upper-level trough moves
southeast across the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. 12Z model guidance
has come in a bit slower and stronger with forcing compared to
previous runs, so PoPs have increased for later Thursday night and
during the day Friday. There is a low chance for severe weather due
to most model guidance having strong mid-level flow ahead of the
trough but it is wholly dependent on timing of convection due to
average moisture content and subsequent marginal instability
expected. A low end severe weather threat could be possible with
thunderstorms that move in from the northwest Thursday, or
redevelopment Friday afternoon.

Temperatures cool back down to near normal on Saturday as high
pressure builds back in but temperatures will be back on the rise
Sunday (and beyond, see likely above normal temperatures in CPC`s 6-
10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlook).
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Primarily VFR conditions have moved across the area, although
there are very patchy MVFR clouds heights amongst the diurnal cu
field developing. These VFR conditions will persist into tonight
before another shortwave trough and weak surface boundary moves
east across the area and lowers clouds to MVFR heights. The only
terminal that will rebound by the end of this period is KTOL,
but the rest will remain MVFR into Monday afternoon. In
addition, with the passage of the boundary, there is no
precipitation expected other than at KERI where they is a chance
of a light rain shower late this afternoon into tonight, but
with low confidence opted to keep it out of the TAF. Winds this
afternoon will increase to 12-15 knots from the northwest with
gusts up to 20-25 knots possible. The strongest gusts should be
limited to the western terminals. After sunset, winds will
weaken to 5-10 knots and persist from the northwest through the
remainder of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
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No changes were made to marine headlines as wind observations on
Lake Erie persist out of the west and northwest in the 15-20 knot
range with waves of 2-5 ft. Expect these conditions to continue
through at least this evening before gradually improving tonight and
tomorrow. While conditions improve, northwest winds of around 15
knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on the lake during
the day Monday, with a moderate risk of rip currents east of the
Islands. High pressure builds in by Tuesday, with a much quieter
lake expected. Modest southwest winds of around 10-15 knots develops
by Wednesday and Thursday.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ007-009.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Saunders