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505
FXUS63 KDLH 300938
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
438 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- An initially dry day will change to rain showers and storms
  this evening and overnight.

- There will be multiple additional chances for precipitation
  this weekend and into next week.

- A potentially wet system may lead to hydrologic concerns next
  week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Temperatures in the mid 30s this morning leading to patchy frost
will increase quickly after 6AM. The exiting ridge axis over
the Great Lakes region will keep us dry throughout the daylight
hours. Lingering dry conditions aloft will lead to abundant
sunshine with diurnal cumulus in the afternoon and dry
conditions aloft will lead to low RHs today similar to
yesterday, especially in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin.

Southerly advection of moisture on the back end of the ridge
coinciding with a low pressure system moving east across
southern Canada will bring chances for showers and storms late
this afternoon into tonight. By Friday morning, models suggest
that the line of showers will stall, mainly over northwestern
Wisconsin, and will lose forcing briefly. Showers will become
lighter and more scattered during this time. However, another
shortwave will move through the Upper Midwest as an upper level
trough begins to push out the ridge, and will lead to another
wave of numerous to widespread light showers and isolated storms
Friday afternoon and evening. These showers will last into
Saturday morning. Most of the rainfall will fall tonight,
especially for our western area, and will be highest across our
south. Half an inch to an inch of rain is expected in these
areas, and decreasing to a tenth to a quarter inch further
north.

Zonal flow aloft will keep weather quiet briefly on Saturday
after the trough exits the region. However, this will be short
lived as another shallow upper level trough moves into the
Rockies. A surface low pressure will then move across the
Central Plains and up into Midwest. Strong moisture transport
will lead to PW at or above the 90th climatological percentile
with values over 1.25 inches in some areas. With all the recent
rainfall, this can lead to some hydrological concerns across the
Northland of localized flooding and/or rising rivers and creeks.
In addition, heightened instability and wind shear across the
area could lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
evening. The heaviest rainfall is expected Sunday night into
Monday, and while uncertain this far out, there is potential for
rainfall totals up to 2 inches.

Our active pattern continues, with another large system
possible. Then it seems we will have a break from precipitation
mid next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF period.
Precipitation on the back side of a ridge will move in this
evening, with MVFR conditions reaching BRD by late evening.
Otherwise gusty southerly winds and diurnal cumulus will be
present throughout the day prior to the precipitation onset.
LLWS is possible overnight ahead of the precipitation (mainly
affecting DLH and HYR), but confidence is too low to include in
the TAF.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
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Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As the high pressure exits, today will start sunny but become
increasingly cloudy throughout the day. Several rounds of rain
showers and thunderstorms will move over western Lake Superior
through the weekend and into next week. Despite multiple systems
moving through, winds are currently not expected to exceed 20
kts for the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-019>021.
WI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-008-
     009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML