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266
FXUS63 KDLH 030815
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
315 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Rain and storms continue for the Northland this morning with
  the main push exiting early this afternoon. Additional showers
  and storms will be possible this afternoon as a cold front
  pivots across the region. These storms are not expected to be
  be severe but could be strong in NW WI.

- Dense fog will form over Lake Superior tonight and may impact
  areas along it`s shores.

- Another system has a chance to bring severe weather Tuesday
  afternoon as a cold front moves west to east.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through the end of the
  week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Current conditions:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the
Northland this morning with the parent low pressure system
located along the International Border. Southerly flow and a
favorable low level jet continue to promote moderate to heavy
rain showers across NW WI. We have seen 1-2" amounts thus far
over our southern tier of counties leading to some peaks in
flash flood guidance. The main concern for flooding at this
point will be through NW WI as they still remain in the warm
sector of the system through the day. Additionally we will
maintain the convective threat through the morning hours as
MUCAPES remain around a couple hundred J/kg.

This afternoon:

There still remains some disagreement on the evolution of the
cold front for this afternoon with some models suggesting it
diving south and others still maintaining its placement over NW
WI. If the latter is true then we should still see some
isolated showers and storms this afternoon. Severe would not be
likely as bulk shear is mostly 20- 25 kts. Elsewhere diurnally
driven showers and isolated storms will be possible across the
MN side of the house for the afternoon.

Monday Night/Tuesday:

High dewpoints well above the lake temperatures will promote the
growth of some dense fog beginning Monday night. Northeasterly
winds will lead to some advection fog inhabiting the nearshore
zones. A dense fog advisory may be needed.

Monday night a low pressure system over the Northern Plains
will begin it`s journey northeast towards Ontario with a broad
warm front surging north across the Northland. Strong warm air
advection is expected through the day with highs climbing into
70s and 80s and more notably some dewpoints soaring into mid and
upper 60s. This will lead to a primed environment for severe
storms to develop as our MLCAPE values will be on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear will also be favorable with speeds of
35 to 50 kts. CAMs are in high agreement with showers and some
storms developing along a cold front oriented north to south
across western MN in the morning hours. This boundary will march
east through the day and arrive along our western counties in
the afternoon. With the favorable ingredients already in place
storms will begin to intensify. Mean wind flow will be at an
angle to the boundary favoring a linear convective mode. SPC
has us outlined in a marginal risk for now but CAMs are showing
remarkable agreement, so would not be surprised to see this get
increased in later updates. Our primary threats will be damaging
winds and large hail, but can`t rule out a tornado threat at
this time. This line should maintain fairly well through the
afternoon and early evening before weakening overnight and
exiting to the east.

Midweek to the weekend:

Upper level ridging sets up over the Pacific Northwest with a
vertically stacked low stalling out Manitoba. Cluster analysis has
this set up persisting into the weekend allowing for continued rain
and storm chances. This pattern is more conducive to diurnally
driven showers and storms with no signals for severe at this time.
Depending on how the upper low transitions east we could end up
with some windy days. Thursday`s signal looks to be the
windiest with the ECMWF EFI`s around .7 - .8 across the
Northland.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Active weather for the Northland as widespread rain showers and a
few thunderstorms work their way across the region. The severe
threat has diminished but thunderstorm chances will continue through
the overnight period. Ceilings are also expected to drop to to MVFR
and possibly IFR. As showers and storms pass expect visibility
restrictions and a few gusts at times with speeds as high as 35 kts.
This activity will shift east through the morning with some
lingering activity over NW WI. There will also be potential for some
diurnally driven showers and storms this afternoon. Additionally,
there is a favorable signal for fog developing across Lake Superior
and possibly pushing it`s way into DLH late in the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
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Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Southeasterly winds today around 5 to 10 knots with showers and
storms moving across the Lake. No severe weather is expected at this
time. High dewpoints entering the Lake this afternoon and evening
may lead to widespread dense fog. This fog is expected to linger
through Tuesday before being ushered out by a cold front. This front
will also be the focal point for severe storms to develop.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt