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809
FXUS63 KDLH 010915
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
415 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Rain chances linger for NW WI and the North Shore today with some
  storms possible in the afternoon.

- Warm temps for Sunday with the potential for severe weather.
  Some storms will be possible in the afternoon but the best
  chances will arrive overnight as a line of storms moves west
  to east.

- Very active weather pattern through next week with potential
  for severe storms returning Tuesday afternoon.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Current conditions:

A stalled out boundary draped over NW WI continues to bring
some light rain showers across the area this morning. This
boundary will loiter through the day giving way to persistent
precipitation chances. The past 24 hr precipitation totals
across NW WI are around .3 to .5 inches as of 1AM. These
additional PoPs will garner another .2 to .4 inches with most
the area staying shy of 1 inch. The river gauges in the area
show no strong responses at this time so flooding concerns
remain low. However, some ponding can be expected in low lying
areas.

Back over in northern MN an upper level shortwave pushes across the
Northern Plains with a weak cold front at the surface. With diurnal
cumulus and some lift from this boundary we could see some very
brief and light showers and embedded thunderstorms. However,
low levels remain very dry and CAMs are not in the strongest
agreement, so we have kept PoPs around 20-30%.

Sunday:

Surface high pressure will be exiting to the east during the morning
hours with a surge of southerly winds streaming in before noon. The
first half of the day will be quiet with high temps soaring into the
upper 70s and low 80s. Some isolated storms may begin to populate in
the afternoon, but the main show looks to be Sunday evening into
Monday morning.

A shortwave ejecting out of the Intermountain West will lead to
cyclogenesis in the Dakota`s. This low is expected to propagate
across the Upper Midwest with it`s attendant cold front being
the focal point for severe weather. Severe storms will initiate
over the Northern Plains and sweep into north central MN in the
evening and overnight hours. The mean wind vectors along the
frontal boundary suggest the potential for a QLCS set up. The
main question for our area will be how far will this line of
storms be able to penetrate before running into more stable air.
As mentioned previously, good southerly flow and moisture
advection through the day will see above normal temps and
dewpoints in the upper 50s. MUCAPE values of 300-500 J/kg are
progged by the deterministic models with bulk shear of 35-40kts.
The NCAR ensemble depicts the line of convection pushing
through MN and weakening as it moves into NW WI by the early
morning hours. Which looking at mid level lapse rates matches
pretty well. Depending on the arrival time the severe threats
will vary. The primary threat will be damaging winds but some
hail and a possible tornado along our western CWA can`t be ruled
out. One additional threat to be aware of is the potential for
some flash flooding. Soil saturation is very moist and
forecasted rainfall with this system is between 1" to 1.5" For
now, SPC has our western counties in a slight risk (2 out of 5)
and a marginal risk ( 1 out of 5) for most of our other
counties.

Monday into midweek:

Rain showers and a few storms continue to start the work week as a
strong low level jet continues to supply the region with a gulf
connection. The aforementioned cold front will push out of the
area in the evening hours allowing for a brief reprieve in the
action.

The active pattern continues with Tuesday sporting another system
moving across the region. The upper level jet digs down into the
Central Plains with the parent low telegraphed to be in the
Canadian Prairies. This would lead to the warm sector setting
up over the Northland and another potential severe weather day.

Cluster analysis highlights ridging building over the Pacific
Northwest and an upper level low stalling over the Great Lakes
region. This will lead to persistent PoPs and active weather
through the remainder of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain showers continue overnight as a stalled out frontal boundary
lingers over NW WI. Thunderstorms chances have quickly taper off
this evening with no observed ltg in the past 2.5 hours. Rain will
linger this longest over NW WI before tapering off by late morning.
Ceilings will also improve to VFR as the rain dissipates. A small
cold front will move in from the northwest today and could generate
some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Additionally, look
for winds to swing to out of the west as the front passes.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
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Issued at 407 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

South to southwest winds today around 5 to 10 kts with low waves
expected. Rain showers will continue through the morning with some
embedded thunder possible in the afternoon. Sunday night a line
of storms is projected to move from the Dakotas and towards
Lake Superior. Should these storms manage to maintain they could
produce severe winds across the Lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt